Euro Dropped Broadly on Weidmann's Comments


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Euro Dropped Broadly on Weidmann's Comments

Euro weakened broadly overnight as Bundesbank head Weidmann was quoted that ECB could lower interest rates if the Eurozone economy worsens. He warned that "overcoming the crisis and the crisis effects will remain a challenge over the next decade." And he noted that while Eurozone might recover this year, "the calm that we are currently seeing might be treacherous". Euro was sold off sharply after the comments with EUR/USD breaching 1.3021 minor support, this indicates near term reversal. More importantly, the weakness was rather broad based as EUR/GBP is way off yesterday's high of 0.8636 and EUR/AUD also dipped from 1.2738. A focus before then end of the week will be on whether EUR/USD would dip below 1.3 psychological level again.
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Featured Technical Report

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8509; (P) 0.8573; (R1) 0.8612; More....
EUR/GBP rebounded to as high as 0.8636 but retreated sharply since then. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. As long as 0.8489 minor support holds, we'd stay cautiously bullish in the cross. That is, correction from 0.8806 has finished at 0.8410 already. Above 0.8636 will target a test on 0.8793/8806 resistance zone. However, break of 0.8489 will dampen this view and will turn bias back to the downside to 0.8410 and below to extend the correction.
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Economic Indicators Update



GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Mar -0.92T -0.92T -1.09T
1:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Q1 2 -5
8:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Mar -0.50% 2.10%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (APR 13) 347K 346K
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Apr 3 2
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Mar 0.10% 0.50%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -14B
     
Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Yesterday's selloff cleared most of the indicated bids and stops scattered at 1.3100, 1.3090 and 1.3020-30, however, suggested buying interest from European names at 1.3000 contained euro's downside so far. At the moment, bids are reported at 1.3020 and also in good size at 1.3000 with some stops placed below 1.2990-95, more demand should emerge around 1.2970 and 1.2950. On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.3060 and also at 1.3080, larger sell orders are reported at 1.3100, then 1.3125, more sizeable selling interest is seen at 1.3150-55 and further out at 1.3200. Option expires today include: 1.2800, 1.2900, 1.2905, 1.2910, 1.2925, 1.2930, 1.2950, 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3015 and 1.3145.
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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9265

Although the greenback staged a strong rebound after falling to 0.9207 yesterday and suggest a temporary low is formed there, break of indicated resistance at 0.9340 is needed to add credence to this view and bring retracement of recent decline to previous resistance at 0.9367. Once this level is penetrated, this would suggest the fall from 0.9567 top is possibly ended and bring further gain to 0.9400 but reckon upside would be limited to 0.9429
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5290

Yesterday's anticipated selloff together with the breach of previous support at 1.5239 add credence to our view that top has been fomed at 1.5412 and bearishness remains for this decline from there to bring retracement of recent upmove to previous support at 1.5199, however, loss of near term downward momentum would prevent sharp fall below 1.5178 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5034-1.5412) and reckon 1.5150 would remain intact
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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights

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