Yen and Sterling Back Under Pressure Yen is back under pressure today on official comments while Euro recovers in crosses against sterling and commodity currencies. Economics Minister Akira Amari said that it's important to "show our mettle to see the Nikkei reaches 13,000 points by the end of the fiscal year" and he said the government wants policy steps "to help stock prices rises". Also, Haruhiko Kuroda, a candidate to be the next BoJ governor, said that "so-called Abenomics, monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and growth strategy, may have influenced exchange rate movements." He hailed that "a two percent inflation target has become a global standard, and it is a landmark decision on the BOJ's part to adopt the same target." Also, some additional easing measures could be justified for 2013. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5719; (P) 1.5781; (R1) 1.5859; More... GBP/USD's recovery was limited at 1.5844 and drops sharply today. Intraday bias is mildly back on the downside for temporary low. Break will confirm resumption of fall from 1.6380 and should target a test on 1.5268 key support level. Above 1.5844 will bring another rise to extend the corrective rally. But upside should be limited by 1.5992 resistance (50% retracement of 1.6380 to 1.5630 at 1.6005) and bring fall resumption eventually. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 0:30 AUD Home Loans Dec -1.50% 0.10% -0.50% -0.70% 18:00 USD Fed Yellen Speaks Eurogroup Meetings
Orders and Options Watch
US Session: Orders and Options Watch GBP: The British pound tumbled today in London on cross-selling in sterling and bids at 1.5750 and 1.5715-20 were filled, indicated mixture of bids and stops at 1.5700 and 1.5675-80 were tripped as well. At the moment, some demand from Middle East names are expected at 1.5645-50 and combination of bids and stops are tipped at 1.5625-30 and further out at 1.5600. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.5720-25 and also at 1.5755-60 with sizeable offers located at 1.5805-10, big sell orders remain from 1.5840 up to 1.5870 (option barrier). Read more...
Forex Trade Ideas
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.3375 Despite intra-day initial brief fall to 1.3326, the subsequent rebound suggests consolidation above this level would be seen with mild upside bias for test of Friday’s high of 1.3430 but break there is needed to signal a temporary low is formed, bring test of previous support at 1.3459 and possibly to the upper Kumo (now at 1.3479), however, upside should be limited to 1.3500 and price should falter well resistance at 1.3577. Read more... Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Hold long entered at 1.0285 Failure to extend last week’s late rebound and current retreat from 1.0349 suggests caution on our long position entered at 1.0285 and last week’s low at 1.0256 needs to hold to retain bullishness for another rebound, above said resistance would signal low is possibly formed and bring rebound to previous support at 1.0360-65, break there would add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent decline to 1.0400 and possibly towards resistance at 1.0459. Read more... Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): 1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530 Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights What Positioning Data is Telling Us EUR And JPY Consolidates From Last Week's Sharp Moves Investors Look To ECOFIN For Euro Light Trading Session Ahead Brussels Meeting Euro Sold Off On Draghi Comments Technical Highlights USD/CAD Focuses on 1.0100 after Breakout from Range EUR/USD - Technical Levels and Conditions 2/11 USDCAD - Strengthens, Immediate Bias Remains Higher Tracking The EUR/USD, Gold Pairs

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Euro Retreats on Political Uncertainties Euro retreats broadly as traders are lightening up positions ahead of ECB meeting later this week. Also, the common currency is somewhat weighed down by political uncertainties in Spain and Italy. Spanish prime minister Rajoy faced opposition calls to resign as it's reported that his part received illegal payments. Rajoy denied the talk over the weekend. In Italy, a recent poll showed that former prime minister Berlusconi closed the gap with front runner Bersani ahead of the election this month. And the situation threatens the chance for Bersani to have a clear majority win. Meanwhile, France finance minister Moscovici said that "the euro is stable, it is strong, and perhaps too strong in some respects. data front Eurozone saw UK PPI unchanged at 2.1% yoy in December. Sentix investor confidence improved less than expected to -3.9 in February. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3572; (P) 1.3642 (R1) 1.3712; More..... Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and more consolidative trading could be seen below 1.3710 temporary top. But downside should be contained above 1.3403 resistance turned support and bring another rally. Above 1.3710 will extend recent rally to 100% projection of 1.2042 to 1.3171 from 1.2661 at 1.3790 next. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 23:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation M/M Jan 0.30% 0.40% 23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Jan 10.90% 13.20% 11.80% 0:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Dec -4.40% 1.00% 2.90% 3.40% 9:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Feb -3.9 -1.7 -7 9:30 GBP PMI Construction Jan 48.7 49.2 48.7 10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Dec -0.20% -0.20% -0.20% 10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Dec 2.10% 2.10% 2.10% 15:00 USD Factory Orders Dec 2.20% 0.00%
Orders and Options Watch
US Session: Orders and Options Watch EUR: The single currency continued to head lower after retreating sharply from Friday's high of 1.3711 as traders unwinding their longs in euro ahead of U.S. data, bids at 1.3585-90 and stops below 1.3570-80 were cleared, combination of bids and stops at 1.3540-50 is now in focus but fresh demand should emerge around 1.3490-1.3510 area with more stops tipped below 1.3480, some bigger sell stop orders are placed below 1.3450 as well as 1.3400-10. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3595-00 and also in good size at 1.3630-40, some stops are building up above 1.3660-70, defensive offers in good size remain at 1.3700 with sizeable stops building up above 1.3715 and 1.3755-60. Read more...
Forex Trade Ideas
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5800 Although cable’s selloff from last week’s high of 1.5879 to 1.5683 signals correction from 1.5674 has ended there, current rebound after holding above said recent low suggests consolidation would be seen and test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5764) cannot be ruled out, however, the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5805) should limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of  1.5683 would bring a retest of previous support at 1.5674 Read more... Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 124.85 Last week’s rally signals recent upmove is still in progress and further gain to 127.05-10 (100% projection of 117.07-122.91 measuring from 121.22), then 127.50 would be seen, however, reckon upside would be limited to 128.00 due to near term overbought condition and price should falter below 128.50, risk from there is seen for a minor correction to take place later. Read more... Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): 1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530 Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights Momentum Selling Has EURO Longs Seeking Exit USDJPY: What A Rally! Ongoing Positive Eco Data Triggered Another Euro Short-Squeeze Technical Highlights EUR/USD Selloff - A Look at Momentum and Trendlines GBPJPY - Strengthens, Pressure Builds On 147.00/50 Levels GBP/USD 3 Day's Recovery Lost In 1 Day

Morgan Stanley order in GBP/USD

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

---

• Eurozone Dec PPI -0.2% vs -0.2% exp
• Jawboning and Spanish corruption hurting euro
• Sentix Feb European investor confidence -3.9 vs -1.7 exp
• UK construction PMI 48.7 vs 49.2 exp
• Another big figure bites the dust in USD/JPY
• Muscovici’s concerns getting quite a bit of an airing this morning
• EUR/CHF Levels/orders
• GBP/USD order update & option expiry
• Orderboard
• Morgan Stanley order in GBP/USD
• JP Morgan: “Buy dips in EUR/AUD”
• Hong Kong Press: China exchanges to raise margins ahead of holidays
• Greek Press: Hatzidakis to meet EU Task Force chief to discuss funds and reforms
• Greek Press: Troika pressing Greece to end automatic wage increases
• GBP/USD Levels/orders
• AUD Levels/orders for today
• Option expiries for the 10am NY Cut today
• EUR Levels/orders today
• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY levels/orders
• Ideas Corner

Eurozone Dec PPI -0.2% vs -0.2% exp Posted: 04 Feb 2013 02:00 AM PST Prior reading was -0.2% The year-over-year reading also in line with expectations at +2.1% Nothing to see here.

Jawboning and Spanish corruption hurting euro Posted: 04 Feb 2013 01:50 AM PST European politicians have become awfully predictable. After the break of 1.37 on Friday I anticipated some weekend anti-euro jawboning and Moscovici delivered. In addition, the growing corruption scandal in Spanish politics is weighing on sentiment. Spanish 10-year yields are up 10 bps today to the highest since mid-December. Italian elections near the end of the month are also a concern. The euro nudged through yesterday’s low of 1.3586 but follow through has been limited. There was earlier chatter about bids down to 1.3575 but some stops may be mixed in as well.

Sentix Feb European investor confidence -3.9 vs -1.7 exp Posted: 04 Feb 2013 01:34 AM PST Prior reading was -7.0 A bit lower than expected but still the best reading since mid-2011.

UK construction PMI 48.7 vs 49.2 exp Posted: 04 Feb 2013 01:31 AM PST Prior reading was also 48.7 EUR/GBP inching lower after the release.

Another big figure bites the dust in USD/JPY Posted: 04 Feb 2013 01:22 AM PST No mercy in USD/JPY as it hits yet another two-and-a-half year high. Barriers continue to pop up around each big figure but the pace of the rise in USD/JPY hasn’t allowed any significant size to accumulate. EUR/JPY offers in the 126.85/00 zone with stops above.

Muscovici’s concerns getting quite a bit of an airing this morning Posted: 04 Feb 2013 12:58 AM PST Muscovici’s weekend comment is getting quite a bit of air on dealing desks this morning. He said, in a TV interview, that the Euro was ‘possibly too high’. Reuters article: France on track to meet 0.8 percent growth target: minister ForexLive post

EUR/CHF Levels/orders Posted: 04 Feb 2013 12:20 AM PST Bids coming in the EUR/CHF at 1.2360/70 and lower around 1.2330. On the topside offers at 1.2410/15 There is a 1.2370 expiry due at the 10AM NY cut. In USD/CHF, offers 0.9100/20 with stop loss buying above.

GBP/USD order update & option expiry Posted: 04 Feb 2013 12:06 AM PST I posted this earlier (complete with typo ) Bearish sentiment is high in the Cable. Understandably so. And the ugly bearish engulfing on Friday is just going to encourage them 1.5700 and thereabouts, though, is longer-term support, and we should plan for some sort of sideways action around these levels for coming days (I beleive this is referred to as 'Famous Last Words'). On the topside around 1.5860 hold selling; 1.59.50 above there. Downside has bids down to around 1.5670 and then a mixture of bids and more sell orders below. I have a few things to add, a little more information gleaned: Macro fund the buyer in the early morning so far from just below 1.5700 Offers at 1.5725/30 and 1.5740/50 There is a 1.5700 option expiry at the NY 10am cut.

Orderboard Posted: 03 Feb 2013 11:56 PM PST I put up orders a little earlier on, probably too early for most . Links: USD/JPY and EUR/JPY levels/orders EUR Levels/orders today Option expiries for the 10am NY Cut AUD Levels/orders for today GBP/USD Levels/orders

Morgan Stanley order in GBP/USD Posted: 03 Feb 2013 11:34 PM PST Morgan Stanley has a limit order to sell GBP/USD at 1.2832, with a protective stop at 1.5930, and a target of 1.5270. That “1.2832″ is obviously a typo – according the headline to the article the selling is at 1.5832 Link to eFX

JP Morgan: “Buy dips in EUR/AUD” Posted: 03 Feb 2013 11:30 PM PST Link to eFX: High risk of a pullback in the EUR/AUD given the short term overbought setup. Buy retracements targeting 1.38 risking 1.27

Hong Kong Press: China exchanges to raise margins ahead of holidays Posted: 03 Feb 2013 11:09 PM PST The commodity futures exchanges in China will temporarily raise trading margins and daily limits for all contracts later this week to curb volatility around the Lunar New Year holiday, they said on Monday. Raising margins. Yeah, that always end well China's exchanges are closed from February 11-15 for the holiday. China exchanges to raise margins ahead of holidays

Greek Press: Hatzidakis to meet EU Task Force chief to discuss funds and reforms Posted: 03 Feb 2013 10:53 PM PST Development Minister Costis Hatzidakis is due to meet the head of the EU Task Force for Greece, Horst Reichenbach, in Athens on Monday afternoon. Kathimerini

Greek Press: Troika pressing Greece to end automatic wage increases Posted: 03 Feb 2013 10:52 PM PST Some news from the Greek press: The troika is insisting that Greek workers who should not receive automatic wage increases based on the number of years they have served, Kathimerini understands. Kathimerini

GBP/USD Levels/orders Posted: 03 Feb 2013 10:39 PM PST Bearish sentiment is high in the Cable. Understandably so. And the ugly bearish engulfing on Friday is just going to encourage them 1.5700 and thereabouts, though, is longer-term support, and we should plan for some sort of sideways action around these levels for coming days (I beleive this is referred to as ‘Famous Last Words’). On the topside around 1.5860 hold selling; 1.59.50 above there. Downside has bids down to around 1.5670 and then a mixture of bids and more sell orders below.

AUD Levels/orders for today Posted: 03 Feb 2013 10:09 PM PST A tight range-bound sort of day in AUD during the Asian session. There is an RBA meeting tomorrow, which kept new initiatives to a minimum and thus flows light. Capital investment into mining got a boost with this announcement: Rio gets OK for $3bn expansion in Pilbara . The market isn’t getting too excited, as other projects being shelved has been part of the news recently. But its another reason the RBA is unlikely to cut interest rates tomorrow. 1.0400/10 holds bids in the AUD, and below there 1.0360/70. On the topside 1.0440/50 offers. Cross flows are pushing the AUD/USD around. We saw some rotation out of the popular EUR/AUD trade during the Asian session which lent support to AUD/USD. EUR/AUD hold bids again, though from 1.3000, offers 1.3120/30. The AUD/NZD sellers took a breather today too. NZD/USD spiked in the early hours (well before Tokyo) to 0.8492. There is a huge band of resistance in NZD/USD at present levels, giving some support to AUD/NZD.

Option expiries for the 10am NY Cut today Posted: 03 Feb 2013 09:52 PM PST There are offers ahead of barrier option at 93.00 USD/JPY and 127.00 EUR/JPY. Option expiries for the 10AM NY cut: USD/JPY: 92.00 92.25 92.50 EUR/USD 1.3600 1.3625 1.3700 AUD/USD 1.0400 1.0450 1.0500 I’ll have GBP and CHF – related information as I get it.

EUR Levels/orders today Posted: 03 Feb 2013 09:46 PM PST Not a lot of news over the weekend, but a couple of items to be aware of: Monte Paschi probe enters crucial week as Italy elections near Spain's Rajoy Fails to Quell Graft Criticism Amid Calls to Quit 1.3700 is a big level now, with solid offer interest around there.  1.3715  has stops above. Around 1.3660 is also well offered. On the downside there are bids ahead of 1.3600 with trader stops below. ADDED – System traders have stops below 1.3590 Overall the bias is still higher for the EUR, but 1.3700 is going to be a test for it.

USD/JPY and EUR/JPY levels/orders Posted: 03 Feb 2013 09:37 PM PST There are barrier-option (93.00) related sellers  from 92.80 (though they came in a little lower around 92.75 during the Asian day) at present. Further sell orders at 93.15 from Japanese exporters. On the downside 92.50/55 attracted buy orders during the Asian day, with further talk of more bids 92.25/40. There are also stops below 92.40. 91.80/92.00 more bids on the downside. - EUR/JPY buy orders from 126.00, with stops below 125.80/85. Bids around 125.30/40. Topside around 126.90/127.00 holds offers – trading stops above there and more sellers ahead of 127.50.

Ideas Corner Posted: 03 Feb 2013 09:02 PM PST Good Morning to those joining ForeLive for the European session. I’ll be taking the first few hours of the session, with Adam taking over later. I’ll have orders/levels posted up soon and option information also. For now, though, over to you – any trading ideas please post them here.

Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610