Euro Retreats on Political Uncertainties


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Euro Retreats on Political Uncertainties

Euro retreats broadly as traders are lightening up positions ahead of ECB meeting later this week. Also, the common currency is somewhat weighed down by political uncertainties in Spain and Italy. Spanish prime minister Rajoy faced opposition calls to resign as it's reported that his part received illegal payments. Rajoy denied the talk over the weekend. In Italy, a recent poll showed that former prime minister Berlusconi closed the gap with front runner Bersani ahead of the election this month. And the situation threatens the chance for Bersani to have a clear majority win. Meanwhile, France finance minister Moscovici said that "the euro is stable, it is strong, and perhaps too strong in some respects. data front Eurozone saw UK PPI unchanged at 2.1% yoy in December. Sentix investor confidence improved less than expected to -3.9 in February.
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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3572; (P) 1.3642 (R1) 1.3712; More.....
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and more consolidative trading could be seen below 1.3710 temporary top. But downside should be contained above 1.3403 resistance turned support and bring another rally. Above 1.3710 will extend recent rally to 100% projection of 1.2042 to 1.3171 from 1.2661 at 1.3790 next.
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Economic Indicators Update



GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation M/M Jan 0.30% 0.40%
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Jan 10.90% 13.20% 11.80%
0:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Dec -4.40% 1.00% 2.90% 3.40%
9:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Feb -3.9 -1.7 -7
9:30 GBP PMI Construction Jan 48.7 49.2 48.7
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Dec -0.20% -0.20% -0.20%
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Dec 2.10% 2.10% 2.10%
15:00 USD Factory Orders Dec 2.20% 0.00%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to head lower after retreating sharply from Friday's high of 1.3711 as traders unwinding their longs in euro ahead of U.S. data, bids at 1.3585-90 and stops below 1.3570-80 were cleared, combination of bids and stops at 1.3540-50 is now in focus but fresh demand should emerge around 1.3490-1.3510 area with more stops tipped below 1.3480, some bigger sell stop orders are placed below 1.3450 as well as 1.3400-10. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3595-00 and also in good size at 1.3630-40, some stops are building up above 1.3660-70, defensive offers in good size remain at 1.3700 with sizeable stops building up above 1.3715 and 1.3755-60.
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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5800

Although cable’s selloff from last week’s high of 1.5879 to 1.5683 signals correction from 1.5674 has ended there, current rebound after holding above said recent low suggests consolidation would be seen and test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5764) cannot be ruled out, however, the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5805) should limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of  1.5683 would bring a retest of previous support at 1.5674
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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 124.85

Last week’s rally signals recent upmove is still in progress and further gain to 127.05-10 (100% projection of 117.07-122.91 measuring from 121.22), then 127.50 would be seen, however, reckon upside would be limited to 128.00 due to near term overbought condition and price should falter below 128.50, risk from there is seen for a minor correction to take place later.
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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights





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