Euro Recovery Limited by Cyprus and Italy

 

Action Insight Market Overview
Euro Recovery Limited by Cyprus and Italy Euro attempts to recover in pre-holiday markets today but strength is so far very limited. There haven't been much good news from Eurozone recently. While the immediate problem for Cyprus is over, markets are still concerned of slow contagion effect out from the island country to Eurozone. Meanwhile, political uncertainty in still high with much prospect of a re-election. Economic outlook remains gloomy too. Italy's national statistics institute ISTAT said today that GDP could contract more than expected by -1.3% in 2013 and the results could even be worse. The head of ISTAT also said to parliament today that there would be no recovery until Q4 of 2013 or early 2014. Previously, Fitch projected that Italian GDP would contract by -1.8% in 2013. Data from Germany provided little help neither as unemployment unexpectedly jumped 13k in March while unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.9%. Retail sales rose less than expected by 0.4% mom in February. Other data released from Eurozone saw Eurozone M3 rose 3.1% yoy in February. UK index of services dropped -0.2% in January, Gfk consume sentiment was unchanged at -26 in March. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9491; (P) 0.9522; (R1) 0.9568; More... With 0.9471 minor support intact, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside for 0.9566. Break will resume whole rebound from 0.9021. Such rise from 0.9021 is viewed as the second leg of the sideway pattern from 0.9971 and should then target 61.8% retracement of 0.9971 to 0.9021 at 0.9608 and above. On the downside, though, below 0.9471 minor support will dampen the immediate bullish case and turn bias back to the downside for 0.9352 support instead. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Feb 1.90% 3.00% -0.40% -0.20% 23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Feb -2.30% -1.30% -1.10% 00:01 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiments Mar -26 -27 -26 07:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.40% 0.80% 3.10% 3.00% 08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Mar 13K -2K -3K 08:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Mar 6.90% 6.90% 6.90% 09:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Feb 3.10% 3.30% 3.50% 09:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Jan -0.20% -0.20% -0.10% 12:30 CAD GDP M/M Jan 0.20% 0.10% -0.20% 12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Feb 1.40% 0.50% 0.00% 12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Feb 2.20% 1.90% 3.80% 12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q4 F 0.40% 0.50% 0.10% 12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q4 F 1.00% 0.90% 0.90% 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 24) 357K 338K 332K 341K 13:45 USD Chicago PMI Mar 52.4 56.3 56.8 14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -62B

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch EUR: The single currency continued to find support above yesterday at 1.2751 and option defensive bids are still noted above indicated barrier at 1.2750, sell stop orders are placed below 1.2750 but some bids are likely to emerge around 1.2735 and 1.2700 (another barrier), more stops below. On the upside, offers in good size are still noted at 1.2825 and also at 1.2840-50, more sell orders are expected around 1.2890-00 with stops orders building up above 1.2910 but fresh offers should emerge further out around 1.2930. Read more...

Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9460 Despite intra-day rebopund to 0.9548, as the greenback has retreated after holding below yesterday’s high of 0.9555, retaining our view that further consolidation below this level would be seen and retracement to support at 0.9473 cannot be ruled out but the lower Kumo (now at 0.9460) should contain downside, bring another upmove later. A break of recent high of 0.9567 is needed to signal early rise from 0.9024 low has resumed and extend gain towards 0.9590-00 which is likely to hold on first testing. Read more... Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Turn long at 119.20 Although the single currency has fallen again after brief recovery yesterday and near term downside risk remains for the fall from 126.03 to bring further weakness, as current move is viewed as the c leg of wave iv correction, downside should be limited to 119.10-20 and support at 118.80 should hold, bring another rebound later. Above 122.00-10 would bring test of 122.85-90 but break there is needed to suggest low is possibly formed, bring another bounce to resistance at 123.85 Read more... Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): 1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530 Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights U.S. Report on Fourth-Quarter 2012 GDP Growth Showed Another Upward Revision Canadian January GDP Stronger than Expected If Depositors Run Where Will The EURO Hide? Euro Weakness Broadens Technical Highlights USD/JPY Slips On Small Margin Japanese Stocks Buy GBP/USD Recovers From Yesterday's Drop EUR/USD Weak On Italy And Cyprus Fears