Dollar Dives as Barack Obama Wins US Election

 
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Dollar Dives as Barack Obama Wins US Election

Dollar drops sharply as Obama is set to win US presidential elections based on latest projections. Strength is seen in European majors against the Greenback and we could probably seen the consolidations in in EUR/USD and GBP/USD that started back in mid-September ending. Meanwhile, gold is seen staging a strong rebound too as it's back above 1720 level, comparing to the near term low of 1672.5 made on Monday. The stock markets are not much enthusiastic on the election results though as major Asian indices stay nearly flat. Overall, it's seen that Obama's re-election will ensure the continuation of the ultra-ease monetary policy and as the picture is being cleared, the greenback could stay pressured in near term.
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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2775; (P) 1.2801 (R1) 1.2838; More.....
The recovery from 1.2763 pushed 4 hours MACD above signal line and turned intraday bias in EUR/USD neutral. Focus is now on 1.2882 minor resistance. Break will be the first sign of completion of whole consolidation pattern from 1.3171. In that case, intraday bias will be flipped back to the upside for a test on 1.3138/71 resistance zone. Break will confirm that rise from 1.2042 has finally resumed and should target 1.3486 key resistance, which is close to 50% retracement of 1.4939 to 1.2042 at 1.3491. On the downside, in case of another fall, we'd expect downside to be contained by 50% retracement of 1.2255 to 1.3171 at 1.2713 to conclude the consolidation and bring rebound.
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Special Reports

ECB, BOE To Leave Interest Rates Unchanged

We expect the ECB to leave the main refinancing rate unchanged in November. It would also likely to keep the non-standard measures unaltered. While the economic outlook remained uncertain with risks skewing to the downside, the central bank would likely stand on the sideline this time as deflationary risks appeared contained, giving policymakers some relief. The BOE will also likely make no change in its monetary policy at the Thursday meeting as the latest GDP report showed some green shoot. Yet, Governor Mervyn King stated last month that 'should those [more positive] signs fade the MPC does stand ready to inject more money', suggesting the decision would not be unanimous.
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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index YoY Oct 1.50% 1.00%
8:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves Oct 432.0B 429.5B
8:15 CHF CPI M/M Oct 0.10% 0.30%
8:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Oct -0.20% -0.40%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Sep 0.00% 0.10%
11:00 EUR German Industrial Production Y/Y Sep -0.40% -1.40%
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.8M -2.0M
       
Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency rallied on dollar's broad-based weakness after the result of U.S. election and offers in the region of 1.2830-1.2850 were filled, mixture of offers and stops at 1.2890-00 are now in focus, more stops are reported above 1.2930 but fresh offers should emerge further out at 1.2950 and 1.2970-80. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.2820-30 and also at 1.2795-00 with some stops placed below 1.2790 but decent demand should emerge around 1.2750-60 with sizeable stops placed below option barrier at 1.2750.
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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9420

As dollar has dropped again after faltering below yesterday’s high of 0.9456, suggesting a top is possibly formed there and consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness to 0.9342-45 (previous resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9276-0.9456), break there would add credence to this view and extend weakness to 0.9320 and possibly 0.9296. Looking ahead, only break of 0.9276 support would signal the correction from 0.9216 low has ended and extend weakness to 0.9250, then towards 0.9216.
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2830

Current strong rebound above the Ichimoku cloud top signals a temporary low is formed at 1.2764 yesterday and consolidation with upside bias is seen for test of previous support at 1.2884, then 1.2925 (another previous support), however, break of latter level is needed to retain bullishness and suggest recent fall has possibly ended and bring a stronger rebound to 1.2945-50 but reckon resistance at 1.2983 would cap upside.
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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights

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