Euro Surges after Italy Auction, Dollar Broadly Lower


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Euro Surges after Italy Auction, Dollar Broadly Lower

Euro jumps against dollar today after Italian debt auctions and takes other major currencies higher against the greenback too. Italy sold a total of EUR 7.17b in bonds today. While that was short of maximum target of EUR 7.5b, yield were seen generally lower. EUR 4.0b in three year bonds where sold with yield at 2.29%, lower than 2.48% in a similar auction in March. EUR 1.67b in 15 year bonds were sold, with yield at 4.68%, down from prior 4.9%. EUR 1.5b in 2017 notes were sold at yield of 2.74%, down from prior 2.95%. The auction results somewhat indicate that investors' worry over the political uncertainty is receding. EUR/USD extends recent rebound to 1.3138 at the time of writing while EUR/JPY also edges higher to 130.82. Meanwhile, dollar is seen lower against swissy, sterling, aussie and loonie.
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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0494; (P) 1.0522; (R1) 1.0571; More...
AUD/USD's retreat earlier today was rather brief and rise fro 1.0347 quickly resumed and reaches as high as 1.0518 in early US session. Intraday bias remains on the upside. Break of 61.8% projection of 1.0115 to 1.0496 from 1.0347 at 1.0582 will bring a test on 1.0597/0624 resistance zone. Sustained break there will confirm resumption of whole rally from 0.9588 and will have larger bullish implications. On the downside, below 1.0500 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But near term outlook stays bullish as long as 1.0347 support holds.
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Special Report

Fed Discussed Tapering QE, Actual Time Dependent On Job Data

The March FOMC minutes signaled that policymakers were more upbeat on the economic developments, although concerns remained on the job market recovery. It was also revealed that the meeting contained vigorous debates about reduction of QE with the consensus that tapering might be appropriate later this year. Yet, recent soft data might delay actual implementation of the tapering. As Atlanta Fed President Lockhart stated today, the focus on the future of QE3 is 'premature' and he is concerned about a 'swoon' in the job market.
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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Mar 3.00% 2.90% 2.90%
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI Y/Y Mar -0.50% -0.20% -0.10%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Feb 7.50% 6.90% -13.10%
01:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation Apr 2.20% 2.30%
01:30 AUD Employment Change Mar -36.1K -7.2K 71.5K 74.0K
01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Mar 5.60% 5.40% 5.40%
06:00 EUR German CPI M/M Mar F 0.50% 0.50% 0.60%
06:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Mar F 1.40% 1.40% 1.50%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Mar -0.50% -0.40% 1.10%
12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Feb 0.20% 0.30% 0.10%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (APR 6) 346K 362K 385K
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -94B
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency surged again today and reached another 1-month high of 1.3138 and indicated offers in the region of 1.3110-30 were filled, however, mixture of offers and stops is still seen at 1.3150-55, some option defensive offers are expected around 1.3190-00 (related to 1.3200 barrier). On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3060 and more buying interest is located at 1.3040-45 as well as 1.3000-10, some stops are placed below 1.2985-90 with fresh demand likely to emerge around 1.2950-60, sizeable stops are tipped below 1.2940.
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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5320

Current breach of indicated resistance at 1.5364 (last week's high) confirms recent upmove from 1.5034 has resumed and further gain to 1.5400-05 (50% projection of 1.5034-1.5364 measuring from 1.5239) and possibly towards 1.5440-45 (61.8% projection) would be seen, however, weakening of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond latter level and price should falter well below 1.5510 resistance, bring retreat later.
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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0505

As the Australian dollar has risen agan after brief pullback to 1.0500 today, suggesting the rise from 1.0116 is still in progress and further gain to indicated resistance at 1.0599 would be seen, we are keeping our preferred count that the 2nd c leg of larger degree double three wave E has ended at 1.0116, hence bullishness remains for further gain towards resistance at 1.0625.
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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights

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