Dollar Mildly Lower after Q1 GDP


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Dollar Mildly Lower after Q1 GDP

Dollar weakens mildly in early US as data showed the economy grew less than expected in Q1. GDP rose 2.5% annualized in Q1 versus expectation of 3.0%. That's notably better than Q4's 0.4%. The price index rose 1.2%, also below expectation of 1.4%. GBP/USD extends yesterday's UK GDP triggered rally and is pressing 1.55. USD/CHF also dips sharply and is pressing 0.94. USD/JPY weakens mildly as yen extends today's post BoJ report. Nonetheless, EUR/USD couldn't find a direction and continues to struggle around 1.3 psychological level.
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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5304; (P) 1.5392; (R1) 1.5519; More...
GBP/USD rises further to 1.5498 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the upside. Rebound form 1.4830 would extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.6380 to 1.4830 at 1.5788. Below 1.5418 minor support will turn bias neutral first. At this point, we're still treating such rebound as a correction. But break of 1.5196 support is now needed to indicate completion. Otherwise, further rally will remain mildly in favor.
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Featured Technical Report

BOJ Left Stimulus Unchanged, Raised Economic Outlook

At the BOJ meeting in April, policymakers left the monetary measures unchanged. The policy rate was maintained at virtually zero and asset purchases stayed at an annual pace of 60- 70 trillion yen. The central bank, however, upgraded the economic outlook aggressively with economy expected to start picking up by the middle of this year. While differentiated on the inflation outlook, policymakers were unanimous in voting to leave the quantitative and qualitative measures unchanged at the meeting.
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Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Mar 718M 472M 414M 441M
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Mar -0.50% -0.40% -0.30%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Apr -0.30% -0.40% -0.50%
04:40 JPY BoJ Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
07:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Apr 1.02 0.98 0.99 1
08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Mar 2.60% 3.00% 3.10%
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q1 A 2.50% 3.00% 0.40%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q1 A 1.20% 1.40% 1.00%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Apr F 74.3 72.3
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound found renewed buying interest at indicated level of 1.5420 and has risen again from 1.5418, however, option defensive sell orders remain ahead of 1.5500 barrier, more selling interest from UK clearer should emerge around 1.5520-30 and 1.5550-60. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.5450 and also at 1.5415-20 with some stops placed below latter level and 1.5390 as well as 1.5370, buying interest should emerge around 1.5360 and 1.5330.
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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9385

Despite yesterday's rebound from 0.9423 to 0.9484, as the greenback has retreated again after faltering below this week's high of 0.9499, retaining our view that further consolidation would be seen and near term downside risk for another corrective fall to 0.9388 (confluence point of 50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9277-0.9499 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9207-0.9499) but reckon previous resistance at 0.9371 would hold and bring another rise later.
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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0200

As aussie has retreated after meeting resistance at 1.0339 yesterday, retaining our view that further consolidation would be seen and below 1.0250 would bring retest of 1.0221, then one more fall to 1.0195-00, however, loss of momentum should prevent sharp fall below there and recn 1.0140-50 would hold, bring another rebound later. Above said resistance at 1.0339 would bring test of indicated resistance at 1.0358 but break there is needed to signal low is formed
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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights


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