Sentiments Stabilized on Talk of EFSF Extension and ECB Covered-Bond Purchase


Sentiments Stabilized on Talk of EFSF Extension and ECB Covered-Bond Purchase

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Sentiments Stabilized on Talk of EFSF Extension and ECB Covered-Bond Purchase

The week started with risk selling in Asian markets earlier today but sentiments then stabilized on news that EU is considering EFSF extension while ECB is considering repurchased of covered bonds. Major European indices turned positive after initial selloff while US indices open flat. More drastic movements are seen in precious metals where gold once dived to as low as 1535 but is back around 1620 level in early US session. In the currency markets dollar are stuck in range against Euro, Swiss Franc and yen and lacks follow through momentum to extend recent rise against commodity currencies.
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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3422; (P) 1.3494 (R1) 1.3570; More.
Even though EUR/USD loses some downside momentum in early US session, with 1.3566 minor resistance intact, intraday bias remains on the downside and current call is still in progress for 61.8% projection of 1.4548 to 1.3498 from 1.3936 at 1.3287. Break there will target 161.8% projection of 1.4939 to 1.3969 from 1.4548 at 1.2979, which is close to 1.3 psychological level. On the upside, above 1.3566 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 1.3936 resistance and bring fall resumption.
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Economic Indicators Update
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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Aug -641M -321M 129M 111M
08:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Sep 107.5 106.5 108.7
08:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Sep 117.9 115.5 118.1
08:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Sep 98 97.4 100.1
14:00 USD New Home Sales Aug 295K 295K 298K
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Despite intra-day brief fall to 1.3360, as the currency pair found decent demand from Asian CB and Eastern European names, euro staged a sharp rebound from there to as high as 1.3542, however, offers from various parties are still noted at 1.3560-70 with stops seen above there but fresh offers are likely to emerge around 1.3600. News that ECB is considering to start again bond purchases also seen supporting the single currency, bids are still noted at 1.3440-50, 1.3400 and further out at 1.3350-60 with stops seen below 1.3350 option expiry.
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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 0.9030

Despite intra-day fall to 0.9006, as dollar has rebounded after holding above previous support at 0.8996, suggesting as long as this level holds, consolidation with upside bias remains for another rebound to 0.9090/00, however, break of intra-day high of 0.9144 us needed to signal correction from 0.9183 has ended and bring resumption of recent upmove for a retest of 0.9183 first, break there would extend rise to 0.9200.
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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 104.50

Despite intra-day resumption of recent decline to 101.95 (lowest since 2001), the subsequent quick rebound from there suggests a minor low is formed and retracement to intra-day high of 103.80 cannot be ruled out, however, upside should be limited to 104.45-50 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 107.00 – 101.95) and bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend recent downtrend to 101.41
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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights

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