Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Euro Dives as ECB Trichet Turns Dovish ECB left benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.5% as widely expected. In the press conference, Trichet noted that the economy economic is facing "particularly high uncertainty and intensified downside risks" even though the bank is still expecting economy to grow "moderately". Regarding inflation, ECB now judges risks for inflation as "balanced" rather than having and upward risk. ECB staff growth projection is lowered to 1.4-1.8% this year, down from prior projection of 1.5-2.5%. For 2012, growth projection is lowed to 0.4-2.2%, down from prior projection of 0.6-2.8%. Inflation is projected to be 2.5-2.7% this year and 1.2-2.2% in 2012, with midpoint at 1.7%. Euro dives after the comments and markets are starting to price in a quarter point cut from ECB over the next twelve months. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4010; (P) 1.4079 (R1) 1.4166; More. EUR/USD's break of 1.3972 support confirms resumption of decline from 1.4548. Intraday bias is back to the downside and further decline should be seen to 1.3837 support next. On the upside, above 1.4149 minor resistance will suggest short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound But after all, as long as 1.4548 resistance holds, consolidations from 1.4939 is still in progress and more choppy sideway trading would be seen in near term. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Jul 0.75T 0.99T 0.92T 23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Jul -8.20% -4.20% 7.70% 01:30 AUD Employment Change Aug -9.7K 10K -0.1K -4.1K 01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Aug 5.30% 5.10% 5.10% 05:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Aug 47.3 54.3 52.6 05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Aug 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Jul 10.1B 11.0B 11.5B 11:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 11:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target 200B 200B 200B 11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 12:30 EUR ECB Press Conference 12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Jul 6.30% -2.00% 2.10% 12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Jul 0.10% 0.30% 0.30% 12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Jul -0.75B -1.05B -1.56B 12:30 USD Trade Balance Jul -44.8B -$51.0B -$53.1B 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 414K 410K 409K 14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 60B 55B 15:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.9M 5.3M
Forex Trade Ideas
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.4030 The single currency slipped on dovish comments by ECB’s Trichet and a retest of this week’s low of 1.3972 is likely, break there is needed to extend recent decline from 1.4550 to 1.3950 and later 1.3920/25, however, loss of near term momentum should limit downside to 1.3900 and reckon 1.3850 would hold from here and bring rebound later. Read more... Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 108.30 Although the single currency retreated after this week’s rebound from 107.80 to 109.95, as long as said support holds, further consolidation would take place with mild upside bias for another rebound and breach of said resistance at 109.95 would add credence to our view that the 2nd c leg of B has possibly ended at 107.80, bring further gain to 110.23 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 114.16-107.80), then 110.95/00 Read more... Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): 1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530 Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Orders and Options Watch
US Session: Orders and Options Watch EUR: The single currency extended recent decline below this week’s low of 1.3972 on ECB’s downwardly revised growth projection, a U.S. investment bank was seen selling euro aggressively, cross-related offers from a UK clearer also seen pressuring euro. Stops at 1.3950 were triggered and more option barriers at 1.3925 and 1.3900 are now in focus. On the upside, offers from same parties remain from 1.4000 up to 1.4050 with some stops seen at 1.4065/70 and mixture of offers and stops is tipped at 1.4100-10. Read more...
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights U.S. Trade Report Shows Smaller than Expected Deficit Canada's July Merchandise Trade Improves More than Expected Dollar Firms ahead of Key Events Probability of US Recession Still Appears Overblown Risk Appetite Fragile As Events Loom Large Technical Highlights Trichet Giving Euro-Bears a Run for Their Money FX Thoughts for the Day Stalking a Flag in AUD/NZD During a Bear Swing EURUSD - Corrective Bias Remains Lower, Retest Of 1.3973 Level Likely