Dollar Retreats



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Daily Report: Risk Aversion Recedes on EU Hopes, Dollar Retreats

Dollar retreats mildly today as risk aversion recedes on hope that European central bankers and officials are putting up a plan to resolve the region's debt problems. Asian equities recover broadly following the 272 pts rebound in DOW overnight. While there is no details yet, it's thought that Eurozone leaders are seriously considering to expand the EFSF fund by borrowing from ECB and leverage while ECB could also announce to restart covered-bond buying next week. Such anticipation will provided support to deeply oversold financial markets in near term but sentiments will remain vulnerable to more negative news out of Europe.
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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9690; (P) 0.9763; (R1) 0.9905; More
AUD/USD's recovery and break of 0.9866 minor resistance suggests that a temporary bottom is in place at 0.9621, just ahead of 100% projection of 1.1079 to 0.9926 from 1.0764 at 0.9611. Intraday bias is turned neutral and some consolidations would be seen. But upside should be limited below 1.0177 support turned resistance and bring another fall. Below 0.9621 will target 0.9404 key support level next. Nevertheless, break of 1.0177 will be the first signal that whole correction fro 1.1079 has completed and will turn focus to 1.0764 resistance for confirmation.
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Economic Indicators Update
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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Aug -0.40% -0.40% -0.50% -0.30%
6:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Aug 0.79
1.29
6:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiment Oct 5.2 5.1 5.2
8:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Aug
1.90% 2.00%
10:00 GBP CBI Reported Sales Sep
-14 -14
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Jul
-4.40% -4.50%
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Sep
46.5 44.5
Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound continued to move higher since yesterday partly due to short covering and comments from MPC Broadbent, stops at 1.5570-80 were triggered and mixture of offers and stops at 1.5600-10 is in focus, however, more selling interest should emerge further out at 1.5640-50. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.5560, 1.5530 with some stops seen below 1.5530 and 1.5500-10 but sizeable stops only placed below 1.5430 and 1.5370/80. UK CBI sales data will be released at 10:00GMT and BOE dove Posen will give speech in Berlin later today.
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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 0.9030

Despite intra-day brief fall, as indicated support at 0.8995 has held, further consolidation would take place and mild upside bias remains for another rebound, above the Ichimoku cloud (now at 0.9075-87) would suggest the retreat from 0.9144 has ended and bring another rise towards this level. Having said that, break there is needed to signal correction from 0.9183 has ended and bring resumption of recent upmove for a retest of 0.9183
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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 76.36

As the greenback has remained confined within near term established range, suggesting further consolidation would take place, however, as long as support at 76.10 holds, mild upside bias remains for another rebound later towards strong resistance at 76.97-77.00 but break there is needed to suggest low is possibly formed and bring test of previous resistance at 77.34.
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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights

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