Aussie Soars after RBA Pause, Euro Soft on Greece Aussie jumps sharply today and hit new record high against Euro after RBA unexpected left rates unchanged at 4.25%. The RBA unexpectedly left the cash rate unchanged at 4.25% in February, in contrast with consensus of a rate cut by -25 bps. The decision, in spite of growing uncertainty in the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, indicated policymakers' confidence in China's demand and US' economic recovery. The Australian dollar soared after the announcement. More in RBA Unexpectedly Paused After 2 Successive Rate Cuts. AUD/USD breaches recent high and is pressing 1.08 level while EUR/AUD dived to new record low at 1.2139 and is still in progress for 1.2 psychological level. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2198; (P) 1.2221; (R1) 1.2263; More. EUR/AUD drops further to new record low at 1.2132 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside and current fall is expected to target 1.2 psychological level next. On the upside, above 1.2319 minor resistance will turn bias neutral. But break of 1.2476 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish even in case of recovery. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Special Reports

RBA Unexpectedly Paused After 2 Successive Rate Cuts The RBA unexpectedly left the cash rate unchanged at 4.25% in February, in contrast with consensus of a rate cut by -25 bps. The decision, in spite of growing uncertainty in the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, indicated policymakers' confidence in China's demand and US' economic recovery. The Australian dollar soared after the announcement. Read more...

Economic Indicators Update	Don’t miss the largest investor and trader gathering in the World—The World MoneyShow Orlando, February 9-12, 2012 at the Gaylord Palms Resort. Be there as recommendations and advice are revealed for how to best position your portfolio for profit—in 2012 and beyond. Register Free Today!
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 21:45 NZD Labor Cost Private Sector Q/Q Q4 0.70% 0.50% 0.50% 0:01 GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y Jan -0.30% -0.80% 2.20% 3:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 4.25% 4.00% 4.25% 5:00 JPY Leading Index Dec P 93.8 93.2 11:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Dec 0.00% -0.60% 13:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Dec 0.80% -3.60%
Orders and Options Watch
US Session: Orders and Options Watch EUR: The single currency has remained under pressure and stops below 1.3050-60 were triggered, mixture of bids and stops at 1.3020-30 is now in focus, however, more buying interests from Middle East, Asian Cbs and U.S. investment banks are likely to emerge further out at 1.3000 (stops below) and also 1.2950 with bigger stops placed below 1.2930. On the upside, offers from various parties are lined up at 1.3090-00 and also at 1.3130, followed by combination of offers and stops located at 1.3160-70 with bigger stops building up above 1.3210 and 1.3235-40. Read more...
Forex Trade Ideas
Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Hold short entered at 1.5830 Despite yesterday’s brief breach of 1.5750 support, lack of follow through selling and the subsequent rebound from 1.5730 suggest consolidation would be seen, however, as 1.5841 capped cable’s upside and has retreated again, retaining our bearishness for another corrective decline. A drop below said support at 1.5730 would add credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.5884 last week and bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.5701 support Read more... Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 76.05 As the Ichimoku cloud top has contained dollar’s retreat from 76.81 (yesterday’s high), retaining our bullishness for the rebound from last week’s low of 76.03 to bring retracement of the intermediate decline from 78.29, above 76.87 (previous support) would encourage for further gain towards 77.15-20, however, reckon upside would be limited to 77.75-80 and price should falter well below strong resistance at 78.29. Read more... Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): 1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530 Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights AUD Shoots Higher As RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged Asia Session: An Undeniably Close Call By The RBA Daily Financial Market Outlook Greece Talks Extended, Euro Holding above 1.3000, RBA Today Technical Highlights Daily Technical Analysis RBA Maintains Rate At 4.25%, AUD/NZD Finds Support Foreign Exchange Market Commentary Daily Forex Update: EUR/HUF EUR/USD - A Descending Triangle Pattern Emerges

Euro Weakened on Juncker Comments as Consolidation Extends Euro failed to break through this week's high of 1.3233 against dollar as consolidations extend. Markets are getting cautious ahead of tomorrow's job data. Meanwhile, investors' are disappointed by the lack of progress in Greece debt swap deal. In addition, the common currency is weighed down by comments from Luxembourg Prime Minster Juncker, who's also the leader of Eurozone finance ministers. Juncker firstly noted that the debt crisis measures adopted in the last summit were "largely insufficient". Juncker urged EU leaders to take further steps in the next summit in March. Meanwhile, he also said that debt swap talks with Greece were very "ultra difficult". Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3049; (P) 1.3134 (R1) 1.3241; More. EUR/USD failed to break through 1.3233 resistance and dipped again today as consolidation continues. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4246 to 1.2625 at 1.3244 will resume the rebound from 1.2625 and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3627. On the downside, break of 1.2931 minor support will suggest that corrective rise from 1.2625 was already finished and the larger decline from 1.4939 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.2625. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Special Reports

2012 Forecast: AUD Boosted By Speculations Over Fed's QE3 In The Near-Term The dovish January FOMC statement thrilled investors and boosted higher-yield currencies. Australian dollar was one of the beneficiaries. AUD soared against USD after the Fed pushed back the first expected rate hike to late-2014, from mid-2013 as projected in previous statements. Moreover, renewed speculations on QE3 have boosted AUD as well as other cyclical currencies. Australian dollar is expected to rise further in the near-term amid rising likelihood of monetary easing. In the medium- term, AUD will likely trade sub-parity against the USD but upside risks remain there for the commodity currency and any accommodative policy from China should help push the currency higher. Read more...

Economic Indicators Update	Don’t miss the largest investor and trader gathering in the World—The World MoneyShow Orlando, February 9-12, 2012 at the Gaylord Palms Resort. Be there as recommendations and advice are revealed for how to best position your portfolio for profit—in 2012 and beyond. Register Free Today!
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Jan 15.00% 14.60% 13.50% 00:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Dec -1.00% 2.00% 8.40% 10.10% 00:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Dec 1.71B 1.23B 1.38B 1.34B 07:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Dec 2.07B 2.85B 3.00B 2.95B 09:30 GBP PMI Construction Jan 51.4 52.5 53.2 10:00 EUR Eurozone PPIM/M Dec -0.20% -0.10% 0.20% 10:00 EUR Eurozone PPIY/Y Dec 4.30% 4.30% 5.30% 5.40% 12:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jan 38.90% 30.60% 13:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q4 P 0.70% 1.00% 2.30% 13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q4 P 1.20% 0.90% -2.50% 13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 367K 375K 377K 379K 15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -129B -192B
Orders and Options Watch
US Session: Orders and Options Watch EUR: The single currency slipped in European session in part due to negative comments from Juncker regarding steps to tackle sovereign debt crisis being largely insufficient, stops at 1.3150 and 1.3100-10 were triggered but bids are still noted at 1.3070 and 1.3050 with more stops reported below latter level as well as 1.3020. On the upside, offers are now noted at 1.3150 and 1.3180-90 with stops building up above 1.3200, followed by mixture of offers and stops located at 1.3230-40 with more stops placed above option barrier at 1.3250. Further choppy trading within 1.3026-1.3233 range would take place ahead of Bernanke's testimony before House budget committee. Read more...
Forex Trade Ideas
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5910 Although yesterday’s rally to 1.5884 signals recent upmove from 1.5234 low is still in progress and further gain to 1.5900-10 would be seen, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.5940-50 (50% projection of 1.5321-1.5798 measuring from 1.5701) and bring retracement of recent upmove. Below previous resistance at 1.5798 would bring test of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.5749) Read more... Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Hold long entered at 99.60 Despite yesterday’s fall to 99.25, as the single currency found support there and rebounded to 100.70, retaining our near term bullishness and as long as said support holds, prospect of another rebound remains and above 100.88 resistance would signal the retreat from 102.21 has ended and bring a stronger rebound to 101.40-50, Looking ahead, a break of resistance at 102.21 is needed to extend the rise from 97.04 low (wave v bottom) for major correction of recent decline in wave (iv) to 102.50-55 Read more... Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): 1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530 Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights EUR Stunted by Juncker Comments, Final Greek Deal Elusive Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Points To Stall In Q1 2012 Global PMIs Spark Optimisms Over Growth Glass Half-Full Argument: Positive Risk Sentiment Continues Euro Profits From 'Buy Europe' Rally, But No Clear Break Yet Technical Highlights EUR/GBP Confirming Bearish Continuation From Wedge Breakout AUD/JPY Testing Resolve of Broken Double Bottom FX Thoughts for the Day EURUSD - Biased To The Upside Nearer Term But Continues To Consolidate

Italy January manufacturing PMI 46.8

---

• EUR/JPY back up through 100.00
• CIPS: UK Manufacturing Spikes To Highest Since May 2011
• USD/JPY at year’s lows ahead of semi-official bids..
• Update: ECB BLS: Sharp 4Q Credit Tightening May Slow
• EUR/GBP trading at session highs amid talk of 1000GMT fixing interest
• UK Jan manufacturing PMI 52.1 (expected 50.00) vs 49.7 in Dec
• Cable heading up to 1.5800 barrier,..
• ECB Bank Lending Survey: Sharp 4Q Credit Tightening May Slow
• Rumour: Greek PSI deal “real soon”
• ECB Text: Bank Lending Survey – Ad Hoc Questions
• Middle East buyers in the AUD/USD…..
• German January manufacturing PMI 51.0
• Italy January manufacturing PMI 46.8
• Periphery/German 10 year bond yield spreads narrow in early trade
• Swiss January PMI 47.3
• Swiss December retail sales +0.6% y/y
• ACB’s seen buying cable, selling USD/CAD
• BOE Offers Unlit Usd In 7-day, 84-day Repo At 0.59%
• Spain January manufacturing PMI 45.1
• Portugal looking to raise some dosh as well

EUR/JPY back up through 100.00 Posted: Some decent offers slowing down this rally now but  buy stops just tweaked as we broke the level to a high of 100.06. There are more offers  up at 100.15/25 and 100.40/50

CIPS: UK Manufacturing Spikes To Highest Since May 2011 Posted: LONDON (MNI) – The UK manufacturing sector saw a sharp pick-up in activity in January, expanding at its fastest pace since last May. The headline Markit/Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply index from Reuters came in at 52.1, well above analysts’ median forecast for a 49.8 outturn, and up from a revised from 49.7 in [...]

USD/JPY at year’s lows ahead of semi-official bids.. Posted: There was some earlier buying from  model accounts , but it’s failed to stop the rot as USD falls to 76.04 Talk of semi-official (Kampo) bids resting at 76.00, which should hold things up for now , but bounces are rather “dead-cat” at the moment. below here is some tech support at 75.85/90

Update: ECB BLS: Sharp 4Q Credit Tightening May Slow Posted: – Survey Conducted Before And After E489 billion 3-year Loan Injection – ECB’s Three-year Loans May Yet Have A Positive Impact FRANKFURT (MNI) – Eurozone banks expect to continue tightening conditions on loans this quarter, but they may do so less aggressively than in 4Q, perhaps reflecting the tonic effect of the European Central Bank’s [...]

EUR/GBP trading at session highs amid talk of 1000GMT fixing interest Posted: We’ve been up to 0.8313 and its scuppering the cable buyers targeting the barrier for now EUR’s at  0.8311 and Cable’s holding around 1.5785 again EUR/GBP support at 0.8380/85 with initial tech resistance up around 0.8345

UK Jan manufacturing PMI 52.1 (expected 50.00) vs 49.7 in Dec Posted: Much better than forecast and highest since May last year. GBP/USD got a lift to a day’s high of   1.5787, but barrier protection offers are weighing now

Cable heading up to 1.5800 barrier,.. Posted: But running into offers above 1.5780 with likely larger offers ahead of the barrier. Talk of buy stops up through 1.5810/15. Tech suppport  lies at 1.5710/15, ahead of major/key support at 1.5650/55 We’re presently sitting at 1.5775

ECB Bank Lending Survey: Sharp 4Q Credit Tightening May Slow Posted: – Survey Conducted Before And After E489 billion 3-year Loan Injection – ECB’s Three-year Loans May Yet Have A Positive Impact FRANKFURT (MNI) – Eurozone banks expect to continue tightening conditions on loans this quarter, but they may do so less aggressively than in 4Q, perhaps reflecting the tonic effect of the European Central Bank’s [...]

Rumour: Greek PSI deal “real soon” Posted: BOLLOX!!!!!! I’m with Annie, I’ve had my fill of this happy horseshit….. EUR/USD through first cluster of sell orders aforementioned at 1.3085/95.   Next lot mentioned 1.3110/20. Both lot’s including real money interest apparently. UPDATE:  Meanwhile IMF official says Troika talks to conclude “very soon”   “Soon” seems real in vogue word this morning. Soon I’m gonna disappear [...]

ECB Text: Bank Lending Survey – Ad Hoc Questions Posted: FRANKFURT (MNI) – The following is the verbatim text of the additional ad hoc questions from the European Central Bank’s latest Bank Lending Survey, published on Wednesday: The January 2012 BLS round included three additional ad hoc questions. The replies to these are summarised below: - Regarding bank access to market funding, euro area banks [...]

Middle East buyers in the AUD/USD….. Posted: Been told they were seen down in the 1.0620′s recently. Offers are sitting in the 1.0640/50 zone ahead of some more up at 1.0675/85. 1.0700 holds a barrier and option related protection offers are seen ahead of it.  We’re sitting just off the recent day’s high of 1.0648.

German January manufacturing PMI 51.0 Posted: Up from 48.4 in December and fractionally better than flash read of 50.9. European stocks seeing accelerated gains, DAX up 1.3%, CAC 40 up 1.5%. EUR/USD has extended rally to 1.3090.

Italy January manufacturing PMI 46.8 Posted: Up from 44.3 in December and better than Reuter’s median forecast of 45.0, highest read since September. EUR/USD up at 1.3073.  Getting reports sell orders now clustered 1.3085/95 and more up at 1.3110/20. Buy stops? I got nada, jack, bugger all Meanwhile,  French January final manufacturing PMI has come in at 48.5, unchanged from flash [...]

Periphery/German 10 year bond yield spreads narrow in early trade Posted: Italy/German 10 year bond yield spread has narrowed to 398 bps from the 416 bps I jotted down first thing. Spain/German 10 year bond yield spread has narrowed to 309 bps from early 318 bps. France/German 10 year bond yield spread has narrowed to 121 bps from early 126 bps (I guess it’s OK to [...]

Swiss January PMI 47.3 Posted: UGHHHHHH!!! Some way lower than Reuter’s median forecast of 51.4.

Swiss December retail sales +0.6% y/y Posted: Down from +1.8%  in November.

ACB’s seen buying cable, selling USD/CAD Posted: Cable at 1.5735 from session low 1.5708 (EBS), USD/CAD down at 1.0025 from session high 1.0048. I haven’t gotten reports, but if they’re selling dollars in those two pairings then they’re most probably selling them versus the euro as well. EUR/USD meanwhile has extended recovery a little further to 1.3063 at writing. Just another choppy day in paradise

BOE Offers Unlit Usd In 7-day, 84-day Repo At 0.59% Posted: LONDON ((MNI) – The Bank Of England said Wednesday it was offering an unlimited supply of U.S. dollars in both 84-day and 7-day operations. The settlement date on the 7-day op was Feb 02 maturing Feb 9 2012. The Bank said the repo would be at a fixed-rate, with the rate to be set at [...]

Spain January manufacturing PMI 45.1 Posted: Up from 43.7 in December and above median forecast of 44.5. Thank heavens for small mercies.

Portugal looking to raise some dosh as well Posted: Portugal auctions 3 and 6 month paper this morning. Indicative amount 1.25-1.5 bln. Results soon after 10:30 GMT  (as far as I can make out)