Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Euro Treads Water Despite German Vote, US Jobless Claims Improved Markets continue to stay in familiar range today. German's approval of EFSF expansion provided little inspiration to the markets while Italy's bond auction was largely ignored. Data from US saw jobless claims unexpected dropped sharply to 391k in the week ended September 24 but reaction is also muted. Also from US, Q2 GDP final was revised high to 1.3% annualized while price index was also revised higher to 2.5%. Canadian industrial product price rose 0.5% mom in August while raw materials price dropped -3.2% mom. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8950; (P) 0.8976; (R1) 0.9027; More... USD/CHF continues to trade in tight range with a soft tone today and is pressing 4 hours 55 EMA. Consolidation from 0.9182 temporary top is still in progress and could extend with deeper retreat. But downside is expected to be contained by 0.8647 support and bring rally resumption. Above 0.9057 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside and break of 0.9182 will target 161.8% projection of 0.7065 to 0.8246 from 0.7710 at 0.9621. Nevertheless, break of 0.8647 support will argue that a short term top is at least formed on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and would bring deeper decline back to 0.7710/8246 support zone. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Special Report

ECB To Cut Or Not? The annual World Bank/IMF meeting indeed showed some influences by urging European leaders to deliver more effective measures to resolve the sovereign debt crisis engulfing the Eurozone. Apart from heightening speculations for an expansion and leverage of the new EFSF, hopes loomed for the ECB to cut interest rates, as soon as at the meeting next week, in addition to other easing measures including re-launch of the covered bond purchase program and reintroduction of the 12-month loans for the region's banks. Read more...

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Aug -2.60% -0.80% 0.70% 0.60% 08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Aug 52.4K 49.5K 49.2K 49.6K 08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Aug -0.20% 0.30% -0.10% 0.00% 08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Aug -0.60% -1.10% 09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Sep F -19.1 -18.9 -18.9 -16.5 09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Sep 95 96 98.3 98.4 09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Sep -5.9 -5 -2.9 -2.7 09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Sep 0 1.9 3.7 12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Aug 0.50% -0.40% -0.30% 12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Aug -3.20% -1.30% -1.20% 12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q2 F 1.30% 1.20% 1.00% 12:30 USD GDP Price IndexQ2 F 2.50% 2.40% 2.40% 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 391K 420K 423K 14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Aug -2.10% -1.30% 14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 97B 89B
Orders and Options Watch
US Session: Orders and Options Watch EUR: The single currency edged higher again to an intra-day high of 1.3679 on wide margin victory in German parliament for the new EFSF measures, however, as the vote outcome is somehow discounted by market players, the post-vote surge was not as impressive as the intra-day rise in Asian session. Offers from various parties are reported at 1.3690-00 with stops building up above there with more selling interest likely to emerge around 1.3750 and further out at 1.3790-00. On the downside, fair size bids are tipped at 1.3600 with stops placed below 1.3590 but more bids are located at 1.3550 with sizeable stops seen below 1.3520 and 1.3490. Read more...
Forex Trade Ideas
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5575 Cable’s strong rebound after yesterday’s retreat to 1.5544 suggests near term bullishness remains for a retest of 1.5705 resistance, however, break there is needed to confirm the rise from 1.5326 has resumed and extend gain towards next chart resistance at 1.5747 but loss of upward momentum would prevent sharp move beyond there and price should falter well below 1.5790/00, bring retreat later. Read more... Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Hold short entered at 104.50 Failure to extend the retreat from this week’s high of 104.96 and current rebound from intra-day low of 103.31 suggest further consolidation would take place and said resistance at 104.96 needs to hold to retain bearishness for another retreat later. A breach of said support would retain our bearishness and suggest the rebound from 101.95 has ended at 104.96 and bring further fall to 103.00 and then 102.50 Read more... Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): 1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530 Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights Germany Passes EFSF Changes, Shows Big Drop in Unemployed, Euro Strengthens Interesting Week ahead in UK - MPC and PMI in Focus London Session: Germany Votes Yes But The Euro's Reaction Is Muted China PMI Data In Focus - Hard Landing Ahead, Or? Policymakers Ratchet Up The Rhetoric Technical Highlights FX Thoughts for the Day Ones to Watch: EUR GBP/USD Maintains Correction Rally Momentum; 1.57 is Pivotal in the Short-term GBPUSD - Wipes Out Losses, Threatens Further Strength

German lawmakers start to vote on enhanced euro zone rescue fund in Bundestag lower house of parliament

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• German lawmakers start to vote on enhanced euro zone rescue fund in Bundestag lower house of parliament
• Germany’s Schaeuble: Debt Crisis A Threat To The Economy
• Analysis: EMU September Economic Morale Weaker Than Expected
• EMU DATA: September econ sent index down to 95.0; to.
• Sept EU economic sentiment falls to 95.0 from 98.4 in August
• Update: Germany Jobless Level Suprises To The Downside In Sep
• German FinMin: Speculation about changes to EFSF beyond 211 bln euros for German contribution is indecent
• GBP/USD offers now up at 1.5710/25
• BOE Data: Overseas Gilt Holding Cut In August
• UK Aug Mortgage Approvals Highest Since Dec 2009
• CIC Chairman: China concerned about unravelling of euro zone debt situation
• UK August Mortgage approvals 52,410 vs 49,644 in July
• BOE’s Dale: Momentum Of UK Rate Direction Has Changed: Press
• Germany’s Jobless Level Suprises To The Downside In September
• USD/CHF stops just tripped down through 0.8920/25
• AUD/USD slowing through tech resistance around 0.9865/70
• GERMANY DATA: September sa unemployment -26k m/m…..
• German Sept sa jobless total -26,000 to 2.922 mln
• Germany’s SPD Reaffirms: Will Vote For Government’s EFSF Bill

German lawmakers start to vote on enhanced euro zone rescue fund in Bundestag lower house of parliament Posted:

Germany’s Schaeuble: Debt Crisis A Threat To The Economy Posted: BERLIN (MNI) – German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble warned on Thursday that the Eurozone debt crisis could have a harmful impact on the real economy. Speaking in parliament ahead of the vote on the government’s bill to enlarge the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), Schaeuble noted that many people are worried that the debt crisis [...]

Analysis: EMU September Economic Morale Weaker Than Expected Posted: September — MNI analysts survey — August Revised lowest median highest from ———————————————————————— Econ Sentiment 95.0 93.0 96.0 97.9 98.4 98.3 Industry -5.9 na na na -2.7 -2.9 Services 0.0 na na na 3.7 — Consumers -19.1 na na na -16.5 — Retail -9.8 na na na -8.7 — Construction -26.0 na na na -23.4 [...]

EMU DATA: September econ sent index down to 95.0; to. Posted: EMU DATA: September econ sent index down to 95.0; August rev to 98.4 (98.3): European Commission – EMU September econ sentiment below MNI survey fcast median (96.0) – EMU September consumer confidence down to -19.1 – EMU September industry confidence down to -5.9 – EMU September services confidence down to 0.0 vs August +3.7 – [...]

Sept EU economic sentiment falls to 95.0 from 98.4 in August Posted: Slightly below expectations of 96.0 Sept Industrial climate -5.9 vs -2.7 in Aug, Services sentiment  flat vs 3.7 in August Sept consumer sentiment -19.1 vs -16.5 in Aug Sept consumer inflation expectations 25.3 vs 26.0 in Aug Sept Business climate -0.06 (expected -0.11) vs revised +0.06 in Aug EUR/USD off slightly on the news, presently at 1.3642.  [...]

Update: Germany Jobless Level Suprises To The Downside In Sep Posted: – updating with details on historical comparison, outlook SA Unemployment: -26k (pan-German), -18k (West), -8k (East) MNI survey median: -5k m/m MNI survey range: -10k to -4k m/m – FRANKFURT (MNI) – The ranks of unemployed in Germany contracted by more than even the most optimistic forecasts expected in September, while the number of job [...]

German FinMin: Speculation about changes to EFSF beyond 211 bln euros for German contribution is indecent Posted: THAT’S TELLING YOU!!! And you…. And even you over there…. Repeats all changes to EFSF have to be approved by German Parliament Aid payment for Greece only possible after Troika conditions met by Greece We are in an extraordinarily difficult situation, market nervousness could spread to real economy Decision on next aid tranche for Greece open, [...]

GBP/USD offers now up at 1.5710/25 Posted: From retail names , i’m reliably informed by a UK clearer UPDATE: I’m now hearing there are offers in front of the above at 1.5705/10 as well, but the bigger stuff is at 1.5710/25

BOE Data: Overseas Gilt Holding Cut In August Posted: –BOE: Overseas Gilt Holdings Cut by stg749mln m/m in Aug LONDON (MNI) – Overseas gilts holdings were cut in August, according to Bank of England data, casting further doubt on the idea of the UK as a “safe haven”. Overseas gilt holdings were cut by stg749 million in the month of August, having risen just [...]

UK Aug Mortgage Approvals Highest Since Dec 2009 Posted: –BOE: UK Aug House Purchase Approvals 52,410 Vs 49,644 Jul –BOE: Overseas Gilt Holdings Cut by stg749mln m/m in Aug –BOE: UK Aug Net Mortgage Lending Change m/m stg0.555bn –BOE: UK Aug Net Consumer Credit stg0.459bn; Vs stg0.293bn Jul London (MNI) – August mortgage approvals rose to their highest level since December 2009, surpassing analysts’ [...]

CIC Chairman: China concerned about unravelling of euro zone debt situation Posted: Ain’t we all matey…… CIC is the China sovereign wealth fund. China cannot be expected to buy high-risk euro zone without clear picture of debt workout programme (you mean it isn’t clear?) Europe should remove hurdles to investment and trade flows from China and other high-growth markets Over time  Europe will come out of the [...]

UK August Mortgage approvals 52,410 vs 49,644 in July Posted: Slightly better than forecast and highest since Dec 2009 August net consumer credit  +£0.5 bln  vs +£0.3 bln in July (expected +£0.2bln) August  mortgage lending +£0.6 bln vs +£0.7bln in July August M4 growth  -0.2%m/m, -0.6% y/y GBP/USD  gets a boost to 1.5702 on the release before falling back to 1.5685

BOE’s Dale: Momentum Of UK Rate Direction Has Changed: Press Posted: LONDON (MNI) – The global economy’s slowdown over the summer has shifted the momentum of the interest rate debate in the UK from one that leaned toward higher rates, says Bank of England Chief Economist Spencer Dale. In an interview with the Daily Mail published Thursday, the Monetary Policy Committee member said before the summer, [...]

Germany’s Jobless Level Suprises To The Downside In September Posted: SA Unemployment: -26k (pan-German), -18k (West), -8k (East) MNI survey median: -5k m/m MNI survey range: -10k to -4k m/m – FRANKFURT (MNI) – The ranks of unemployed in Germany contracted by more than even the most optimistic forecasts expected in September, while the number of job vacancies continued to climb, the Federal Labour Office [...]

USD/CHF stops just tripped down through 0.8920/25 Posted: As usual in these markets they were duly taken out with little in the way of a follow through. USD fell to 0.8918 on the EBS before bouncing back to 0.8930

AUD/USD slowing through tech resistance around 0.9865/70 Posted: Had a good bounce this morning with some help from  steady sales in EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD, i’m told by a reliable source. Some option related interest around 0.9900 as well. High so far’s  been 0.9874 and were sitting currently around 0.9870

GERMANY DATA: September sa unemployment -26k m/m….. Posted: GERMANY DATA: September sa unemployment -26k m/m (MNI median -5k): Federal Labour Office. – Germany September sa unemployment rate 6.9% (MNI median 7.0%) – Germany September sa unemployment 2.922 mln vs August 2.948 mln – Germany September nsa unemployment rate 6.6% vs August 7.0% – Germany September nsa unemployment 2.796 mln vs August 2.945 mln [...]

German Sept sa jobless total -26,000 to 2.922 mln Posted: Better than Reuters’ median forecast of -8k. Sorry in my excitment  (yes I get excited on average about once a month) I totally missed the release. How shoddy. Obviously has helped support single currency.

Germany’s SPD Reaffirms: Will Vote For Government’s EFSF Bill Posted: BERLIN (MNI) – Germany’s largest opposition party, the center-left SPD, on Thursday reaffirmed that it will vote for the government’s bill on an empowering the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). “We will vote for the bill,” Peer Steinbrueck, who was finance minister in the former government, said in a speech in parliament ahead of the [...]