ECB bond-buying does not necessarily mean more austerity – Coeure

• Germany faces ECB backlash
• ECB bond-buying does not necessarily mean more austerity – Coeure
• Hu says China growth is facing ‘notable downward pressure’
• ECB’s move would be a game changer if Spain/Italy had the humility to play the game – JP Morgan
• China’s ticking debt bomb
• At last! Photos of the BungaBunga cave!
• ForexLive North American wrap: Payrolls burn dollar
• An impressive end to an impressive week
• Survey: odds of QE3 next week rise to 60% from 45%
• Hope you weren’t the one hanging on to the EUR shorts
• US DATA: Aug Tsy STRIPS -$1.14 bln and +$1.1b ex…..
• Some late day GBP and JPY selling
• Hey, it coulda been worse
• A good week and a good weekend
• Portugal will tax private sector worker benefits
• Fin min Grilli says Italian view on aid request hasn’t changed after ECB
• CIC chair says China can grow 7.5% this year
• ECB’s Nowotny: The ball is now in the politicans court
• Best trade this week: long EUR/USD
• Greece PM: Need To Get Next Loan Tranche Released Immediately

Germany faces ECB backlash Posted: 08 Sep 2012 01:38 AM PDT Financial Times

ECB bond-buying does not necessarily mean more austerity – Coeure Posted: 08 Sep 2012 01:05 AM PDT Gotta be music to Spanish and Italian ears, don’t it?

Hu says China growth is facing ‘notable downward pressure’ Posted: 08 Sep 2012 12:54 AM PDT Oh dear

ECB’s move would be a game changer if Spain/Italy had the humility to play the game – JP Morgan Posted: 08 Sep 2012 12:45 AM PDT Not everyone carried away by euro’s recent renaissance.

China’s ticking debt bomb Posted: 07 Sep 2012 05:47 PM PDT Banks, not government, provided most of the 2008/09 stimulus. The chickens may be beginning to come home to roost as a result of poor lending practices.

At last! Photos of the BungaBunga cave! Posted: 07 Sep 2012 04:51 PM PDT Thank goodness for the British press. Without them, we would not have photographic evidence of Silvio Berlusconi’s BungaBunga lair. Mo one can doubt the once and possibly future Italian PM’s vigor…

ForexLive North American wrap: Payrolls burn dollar Posted: 07 Sep 2012 01:29 PM PDT Non-farm payrolls 96K vs 130K Unemployment rate falls to 8.1% as participation falls Canadian employment 34.3K vs 10K exp Canada Ivey PMI 62.5 vs 59.0 exp UK Niesr GDP estimate +0.2% in Aug quarter Spain deputy PM: will analyze before decision on aid EU banking union draft leaks Merkel: ECB conditionality is a very important point Van Rompuy: No doubt Greek future is in the euro CIC chair says China can grow 7.5% this year BOC's Carney: no Dutch disease here Portugal announces new austerity measures S&P 500 gains 0.4% to 4-year high of 1437 On week, S&P 500 gains 2.2% EUR leads, USD lags Terrible payrolls report in every way. No silver linings at all and the market is now pricing in a good chance of QE3 next week. EUR shorts got squeezed once again, sending EUR/USD above 1.28. Cable rallied to a four-month high of 1.6034. USD/JPY screamed down nearly a full cent but found bids ahead of 78.00 and drifted up to 78.24. Gold up almost $40 to $1736.

An impressive end to an impressive week Posted: 07 Sep 2012 12:58 PM PDT EUR/USD heads into the close quite close to session highs, now just above 1.2800. There is some wood to chop on up to the 1.2840 area, so a break higher early next week would be very impressive indeed. My guess is that we get some backing and filling between 1.2700 and 1.2825/40 early next week until the major event risks out of Europe are out of the way Tuesday. After that, we have the Fed to contend with on Thursday. All the best for a restful weekend.

Survey: odds of QE3 next week rise to 60% from 45% Posted: 07 Sep 2012 12:41 PM PDT Reuters poll of 59 economists sees 60% change of QE3 compared to 45% in an Aug 24 poll. Median of survey of primary dealers sees 68% chance 36 of 52 economists see QE3 as open ended 49 of 52 economists see rate guidance extended I would put the odds even higher than 60% but economists are loath to change their calls so quickly. When all is said and done, I expect the market to go into the announcement pricing in an 80% chance.

Hope you weren’t the one hanging on to the EUR shorts Posted: 07 Sep 2012 12:35 PM PDT The smart money didn’t get out of the way of the EUR rally, at least not as Tuesday night when the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders data was collected. EUR net short increases to 102K from 101K JPY net long increases to 24K from 22K GBP net short 7K vs net long 2K last week AUD net long decreases to 62K from 78K CAD net long increases to 67K from 61K NZD net long decreases to 11K from 14K CHF net short increases to 13K from 11K On the other hand, futures traders piled into CAD longs at the right time.

US DATA: Aug Tsy STRIPS -$1.14 bln and +$1.1b ex….. Posted: 07 Sep 2012 12:10 PM PDT US DATA: Aug Tsy STRIPS -$1.14 bln and +$1.1b ex maturities. Bonds +$0.4b and notes -$1.6b. The 2.75% bonds of ’42 had $912m stripped.

Some late day GBP and JPY selling Posted: 07 Sep 2012 12:05 PM PDT Backing away from the highs in the final hours of trading . USD/JPY up to 78.28, perhaps on the slightest worries about intervention, or intervention rhetoric. Cable hit a four-month high today and broke 1.60 but given the broad USD losses, only a 75 pip gain on the day is a small disappointment. Watch 1.60 on the close.

Hey, it coulda been worse Posted: 07 Sep 2012 12:00 PM PDT Best campaign slogan yet. The Daily Show Get More: Daily Show Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,The Daily Show on Facebook

A good week and a good weekend Posted: 07 Sep 2012 11:40 AM PDT Shortly, we will get the weekly CFTC numbers  (could be a big fall in EUR/USD shorts). Surely the moves of the past two days got everyone thinking about making faster money. Rock out and rest up for next week. Look out for Chinese data on CPI, industrial production and retail sales on Sunday.

Portugal will tax private sector worker benefits Posted: 07 Sep 2012 11:32 AM PDT Portuguese PM Coelho is addressing the nation in Lisbon and talking about the 2013 budget, with new austerity measures. Will increase the social security contribution rate Will reduce social security charged to companies

Fin min Grilli says Italian view on aid request hasn’t changed after ECB Posted: 07 Sep 2012 11:19 AM PDT They’re sticking to plan A, which is equal doses of hope and prayer. To be fair, it’s certainly working at the moment.

CIC chair says China can grow 7.5% this year Posted: 07 Sep 2012 11:11 AM PDT China can achieve 7.5% growth target in 2012 Economy will be ‘fine’ if it can grow about 7% New infrastructure spending will help boost growth The CIC is China’s main sovereign wealth fund. Chairma of the Board of Supervisors Jin spoke to Reuters in Mexico City.

ECB’s Nowotny: The ball is now in the politicans court Posted: 07 Sep 2012 10:55 AM PDT Hard to argue with our loquacious Austrian friend. The ECB has put a lot on the table. It is up to the politicians to agree to abide by the ECB’s framework or go it on their own. If they go it on their own, don’t expect the rally in European bond markets to last. It is predicated on unlimited by by Draghi and Co, sooner rather than later.

Best trade this week: long EUR/USD Posted: 07 Sep 2012 10:28 AM PDT The euro bulls got paid, as the pair topped the leaderboard this week, gaining 1.69% or210 pips. Most of the gains came today. EUR/USD has now gained in 6 of the past 7 weeks. Lots of eyes on the 200-day moving average at 1.2841. What will be the best trade next week?

Greece PM: Need To Get Next Loan Tranche Released Immediately Posted: 07 Sep 2012 10:00 AM PDT ATHENS (MNI) – Greek prime minister Antonis Samaras appealed Friday to the European Union to release the next loan tranche for Greece immediately. Speaking at a press conference in the Greek capital after a meeting with European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, Samaras said that the Greek people have “reached their limits.” “I have raised the issue of a timely release of the next loan tranche, which will be primarily injected into the domestic economy in order to boost liquidity,” Samaras said. “Our efforts are persistent and painful and are being made in order to regain our credibility and honor our commitments,” he added. The Greek prime minister said he described to Van Rompuy the enhanced privatization program his government is pushing through as well as the extremely high unemployment levels and unprecedented recession the country is suffering from. Samaras again noted negative statements about Greece made by EU officials and reiterated that such words “harm Greece’s efforts to recover.” Van Rompuy asked the Greek government to continue pushing for structural reforms and acknowledged the efforts made so far, calling the Greek people “courageous.” “Monopoly behaviors must be broken. It is not just a matter of bringing the fiscal deficit down. It is also a matter of social justice. Those who have must carry their share of the burden,” he said. “The Greek prime minister reassured me that the coalition government is committed to make the program successful. I am convinced in the end the program will be successful and Greece will have [efficient] institutions and public administration,” he added. Van Rompuy said he was “confident that the future of Greece is within the Eurozone” and that the EU will continue to support Greece’s effort towards recovery, provided that the indebted country honors its commitments. “For those who doubt, I would like to remind that we have approved E240 billion worth of financial aid for Greece and that the ECB has purchased many Greek bonds,” Van Rompuy emphasized. He added that “the crisis is not Greek” and that the “decisions taken by the EU summit in July and those taken by the ECB yesterday are very important.” Athens bureau. Email: apapamiltiadou@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$X$$$,MT$$$$,M$$EC$,MGX$$$,M$Y$$$,M$$CR$]

Dollar Plummets after NFP, EUR/CHF Jumps on SNB Rumor

Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Dollar Plummets after NFP, EUR/CHF Jumps on SNB Rumor Dollar is sharply lower in early US session, in particular against the Japanese yen, after release of weaker than expected NFP number. The data showed US job market grew 96k in August, comparing to expectation of 127k. Prior month's figure was also revised down from 163k to 141K. Unemployment rate, though, improved to 8.1%, thanks to the fact that 368k of Americans left the labor market. On the other hand, the Canadian dollar was boosted by stronger than expected job market data which showed 34.3k growth in August comparing to expectation of 11k. Unemployment rate in Canada was unchanged at 7.3% as expected. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9503; (P) 0.9550; (R1) 0.9582; More... USD/CHF's fall resumed by taking out 0.9502 and reaches as ow as 0.9473 so far in early US session. Intraday bias is back on the downside and further decline should be seen to 0.9420 key support level next. Break will have further bearish implications and would pave the way to 0.9 psychological level and below. On the upside, break of 0.9607 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even in case of recovery. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Special Reports

ECB Unveils More Details about Outright Monetary Transactions ECB leaves main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.75%, compared with our expectation of a rate cut of -25 bps. Policymakers believed that this is not an appropriate time to lower interests as economic weakness had been anticipated. Meanwhile, President Draghi stated at the press conference that officials have basically agreed on unlimited bond purchase program. Despite objected by a member, the program is expected to be able to help "address severe distortions in government bond markets which originate from, in particular, unfounded fears on the part of investors of the reversibility of the euro". According to Draghi, purchases would be fully sterilized, suggesting that the program would not trigger inflation pressure. The ECB also affirmed that purchases would not have seniority. Read more...

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Jul -556M -300M 9M 05:00 JPY Leading Index Jul P 91.8 91.6 93.2 05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Aug 2.90% 2.90% 2.90% 06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Jul 16.1B 15.4B 16.2B 16.3B 07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves Aug 418.4B 406.5B 408.6B 08:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Jul 2.90% 1.50% -2.50% -2.40% 08:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Jul -0.80% -2.80% -4.30% -3.90% 08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Jul 3.20% 1.70% -2.90% 08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jul -0.50% -2.40% -4.30% 08:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Aug 2.00% 1.70% 1.30% 0.40% 08:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Aug 1.40% 1.50% -2.40% 08:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Aug 0.50% 0.20% 0.00% 0.10% 08:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Aug 2.20% 1.90% 1.70% 1.80% 08:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M Aug 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% -0.10% 08:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Aug 1.20% 1.20% 1.30% 1.20% 10:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Jul 1.30% 0.00% -0.90% -0.40% 12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Aug 96K 127K 163K 141K 12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Aug 8.10% 8.30% 8.30% 12:30 CAD Labor Productivity Q/Q Q2 -0.40% 0.10% 12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Aug 34.3K 11.0K -30.4K 12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Aug 7.30% 7.30% 7.30% 12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Jul -2.30% -1.50% -2.50% 14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Aug 64.5 62.8 14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Aug -0.20%
Orders and Options Watch
US Session: Orders and Options Watch EUR: The single currency rallied today and the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. job data gave extra energy to the pair, barriers at 1.2700 and 1.2750 were cleared, some offers at 1.2760-70 (related to 50% retracement of 1.3487-1.2042) were also filled, however, some selling interests for profit taking ahead of weekend are tipped further out at 1.2790-00 with mixtures of offers and stops located at 1.2810-20 and 1.2850. On the downside, bids from various parties are located at 1.2700-10 and also at 1.2670 with combination of bids and stops located at 1.2640-50 but sizeable stops only emerging below 1.2620 and 1.2600. Full Report Here...
Forex Trade Ideas
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2695 As euro’s intra-day rise has gathered momentum after the release of soft U.S. job data, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress for a stronger retracement of early downtrend and gain to 1.2800-10, then 1.2835-40 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.2890-95 (1.618 times projection of 1.2042-1.2444 measuring from 1.2242) and reckon 1.2950 would hold from here. Full Report Here... Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): 1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530 Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights U.S. Job Growth Disappoints in August; Likely a Precursor to QE3 U.S. August Payroll Employment Disappointingly Weak Canadian Economy Added 34,300 Jobs in August Waiting For NFP As Risk Appetite Rallies Historical ECB Meeting? Technical Highlights EUR/USD Challenges Key Resistance Factors with Poor US Jobs Data EUR/GBP in Breakout Mode for More Upside Correction FX Thoughts for the Day USD/JPY Trading Near Apex of Triangle; Looking to NFP and FOMC Meeting GBP/JPY Breaks Above Resistance with 127.00-127.10 in Sight EURJPY - Takes Out The 99.16 Level, Price Extension Seen