UK Analysis: Q3 Current Account Deficit Highest On Record




Link to ForexLive

Posted:
–Q3 Current Account Deficit Stg15.226bn Vs Stg7.386bn Q2 LONDON (MNI) — The UK’s current account deficit ballooned in the third quarter to its highest level on record, figures released by National Statistics revealed Thursday. The data show the UK’s external position in a far worse state than first thought, with a sharp upward revision to [...]
Posted:
–Q3 Revised GDP +0.6% q/q; +0.5% y/y LONDON (MNI) – Economic growth in the third quarter was revised up slightly, but the outlook for growth remains fragile, figures released from National Statistics showed Thursday. GDP was revised up to show an increase of 0.6% on the quarter in Q3 compared with the initially estimated 0.5% [...]
Posted:
UK DATA: Q3 Current Account Deficit Highest On Record –Q3 Current Account Deficit Stg15.226bn Vs Stg7.386bn Q2 ———————————————————————— The current account deficit ballooned in Q3 to the highest level on record and the highest as a proportion of GDP since Q2 1990. This was mainly due a to a widening in the visible trade balance [...]
Posted:
UK DATA: Q3 Revised GDP +0.6% q/q; +0.5% y/y; median 0.5% q/q; 0.5% y/y ———————————————————————— Q3 economic growth was revised up slightly, but the outlook for growth remains fragile. GDP was revised up to show an increase of 0.6% on the quarter in Q3 compared with the initially estimated 0.5% rise, above the median forecast [...]
Posted:
(expected +0.5% q/q. +0.5% y/y) Q2 revised down to unchanged q/q from +0.1% q/q Q3 Services rev to +0.7% from +0.6%, indust prod rev down to +0.2% from +o.4% q/q, Construct rev up to +0.3%  from -0.2% q/q Q3 C/A deficit highest on record at £15.226 bln from  £7.386 bln in Q2 Littl reaction from GBP/USD  [...]
Posted:
ITALY DATA: October retail sales rose 0.1% m/m in SA nominal terms, as an increase discounted food sales fuelled the first increase in six consecutive months. In y/y terms, retails sales fell 1.5%, up from a 1.6% contraction in September. –The three-month moving average contracted 0.5% in the months from August to October, compared with [...]
Posted:
unadjusted -1.5% y/y from -1.6% in Sep. Food nsa +0.9% from+0.7% in Sep, Non-food nsa -2.5%  unchanged from Sep
Posted:
Some talk that a Middle Eastern name was a buyer up from  the 1.5680, but now being told a small sovereign name has been doing the rounds selling above 1.5720. We touched  a day’s high of 1.5729  just now. Talk of some offers  towards 1.5750, and larger at  1.5770/75, Bids at 1.5655/60 and 1.5620/25
Posted:
So I’m being told, but  told some decent resistance now sitting up at 1.3130/50. We just touched  a high of 1.3110 and are sitting around 1.3104 now
Posted:
In case it hasn’t already been mentioned there is a lot of option interest today in the AUD/USD.. There’s a very large 1.0000 strike  (1+ yard of AUD) which runs off at the 1000EDT/1500GMT cut and there are smaller ones at , 1.0050, 1.0100 and 1.0125 There’s also a 1.3000 EUR/AUD strike but i haven’t any [...]
Posted:
As Adam mentioned earlier there are some reported buy orders down at 1.3020 ahead of a large expiry today at 1.3000. Offers are said to be in place up above 1.3080 and the 31.8% retracement of yesterday’s range lies at  1.3090. We’re sitting at 1.3070
Posted:
All those statistic  junkies out there are going to be a bit short changed today, witb the only real focus this morning being the UK  Final Q3 GDP  numbers and Q3 balance of payment due out at 0930GMT. GDP expectations are for  unchanged around 0.5%, with the C/A balance expected around -£6.3/6.5 bln Gerry’s off filling [...]
Posted:
JAPAN DATA: From FY2012 economic forecasts by the government: – JAPAN GOVT FORECAST LOWERED FOR FY2012 REAL GDP AT +2.2% Y/Y – JAPAN REVISES FY11 REAL GDP FORECAST TO -0.1% FROM +0.5%
Posted:
JAPAN DATA: Economic growth forecast released by the government: – Japan Govt Forecasts FY2012 Real GDP +2.2%, Was +2.7% to +2.9% – Japan Revises FY11 Real GDP Forecast To -0.1% From +0.5%
Posted:
– Japan Revises FY11 Real GDP Forecast To -0.1% From +0.5% TOKYO (MNI) – The government on Thursday forecast that Japan’s economy will grow a real 2.2% in fiscal 2012 starting next April, up from an estimated -0.1% in the current fiscal year. The forecast for fiscal 2011 was revised down from an earlier projection [...]
Posted:
Below the US lows and down to $1603.
Posted:
– See Separate Table For Details of Individual Forecasts TOKYO (MNI) – Japanese housing starts are expected to have declined 5.0% in November, which would be a third straight monthly year-on-year drop, according to the median forecast of analysts surveyed by Market News International. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism will release the [...]
Posted:
New Zealand Q3 GDP +0.8% vs +0.6% exp but downward revisions show y/y growth worse than expected PBOC survey shows consumer inflation expectations falling, businesses pessimistic Australian Melbourne Institute Household Financial Conditions Index falls 11.6% in December Several large Chinese cities will continue home ownership restrictions in 2012 but they may be fine tuned Chinese [...]
Posted:
– Japan November Supermarket Sales -2.3% Y/Y; Oct -0.9% – Japan Sales Post Falls For 4 Months In Row TOKYO (MNI) – Sales at supermarkets in Japan open for at least a year fell 2.3% in November from a year earlier to Y1.040 trillion, posting y/y falls for four months in a row, an industry [...]
Posted:
TOKYO (MNI) – The Bank of Japan on Thursday offered a cautious outlook for Japan’s capital investment in the coming months. “Business fixed investment is projected to continue a moderate increasing trend, partly due to efforts by firms to restore and reconstruct disaster-stricken facilities, although it will be affected by the slowdown in overseas economies [...]

Markets Steady, EUR/USD Heading Back to 1.30



ActionForex.com


 Markets Steady, EUR/USD Heading Back to 1.30

Markets are generally steady in Asian session today. Risk appetite failed to sustain overnight as traders refused to commit to their positions ahead of thin holiday trading period. Weak home sales data and Fitch's update report on US fiscal projections also weighed down sentiments a bit. EUR/USD is back below 1.31 level again and judging from these few days price actions, there selloff isn't over yet and we'll more likely seen another break 1.30 again, probably as markets return from holiday next week.
Full Report Here...

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2993; (P) 1.3039 (R1) 1.3082; More.
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment and more consolidative trading could be seen in range of 1.2946/3197. But after all, with 1.3212 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of bottoming and fall from 1.4246 is still in favor to continue. Break of 1.2946 will confirm decline resumption for 1.2873 support first. However, break of 1.3212 will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed at 1.2946 and stronger rebound should then be seen to 1.3538 resistance and above.
Read more...
Special Reports

BOE Votes Unanimously To Leave Rates And Asset Purchases Unchanged

The BOE minutes indicated that policymakers voted unanimously in December to leave the Bank rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at 275B pound. While all of them believed the current global and domestic economic situations did not warrant for monetary easing, they were split on the implications of the November inflation report. While some believed further expansion of the asset buying program would be inevitable, others viewed that the risks to inflation around the target were more balanced in the medium-term.
Read more...

RBA Cut Rates In December As Situation In Eurozone Deteriorated Sharply

The RBA minutes for the December meeting indicated that the rate cut in the month was mainly driven by the dire situation in the Eurozone (in November, the rate cut was due to weaker-than-expected inflation). Domestic economic situation has softened but it has not weakened to an extent that a reduction in interest rate was needed. Indeed, policymakers continued to believe that growth would be close to trend in coming few years. The central bank did not give any hint of monetary policy outlook. However, given the highly uncertain global economic outlook, especially in the Eurozone, and the moderation in inflation, further easing is likely to be seen in as soon as early 2012.
Read more...
Economic Indicators Update
Don’t miss the largest investor and trader gathering in the World—The World MoneyShow Orlando, February 9-12, 2012 at the Gaylord Palms Resort. Be there as recommendations and advice are revealed for how to best position your portfolio for profit—in 2012 and beyond. Register Free Today!


GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD GDP Q/Q Q3 0.80% 0.60% 0.10%
5:00 JPY BOJ Monthly Report



9:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q3 F
0.50% 0.50%
9:30 GBP Current Account (GBP) Q4
-6.3B -2.0B
13:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q3 T
2.00% 2.00%
13:30 USD GDP Price Index Q3 T
2.50% 2.50%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
375K 366K
14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Dec F
68.2 67.7
15:00 USD Leading Indicators Nov
0.30% 0.90%
15:00 USD House Price Index M/M Oct
0.20% 0.90%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
-103B -102B
Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Although the single currency rallied to as high as 1.3199 yesterday, euro quick plunged from there on typical ‘buy on rumor sell on fact' scenario and S&P's downgrading of Hungary, however, the pair found good support at 1.3025 and has recovered, suggesting consolidation would take place in the near term. At the moment, offers are reported at 1.3100-10 and further out at 1.3150 with mixture of offers and stops in good size located at 1.3195-05. On the downside, decent demand is still seen at 1.3020-25 and also 1.3000 with stops building up below both levels but sizeable stops only emerging below 1.2980 and 1.2940.
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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3125

Despite yesterday’s brief rise to 1.3199, the subsequent selloff to 1.3025 suggests top has been formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for weakness to 1.3000, however, only break of indicated support at 1.2983 would revive our bearish view that correction from 1.2945 low has ended at 1.3199 and bring retest of this level later.
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 77.30

Although the greenback found renewed buying interest above previous support at 77.62 and staged a rebound from yesterday’s low of 77.68, a sustained breach of this week’s high at 78.18 is needed to extend the rise from 77.13 to indicated resistance at 78.29 but only break of latter level would retain bullishness and confirm our view that correction from 79.55 has ended and bring further gain to 78.50
Read more...
Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights

ECB Triggered Risk Appetite Fails to Sustain


ActionForex.com

Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

ECB Triggered Risk Appetite Fails to Sustain

ECB allotted as much as EUR 489.19b in the three year Long Term Refinancing Operation today, surpassing market expectations of around EUR 300b. The fund was offered to 523 banks and that's the largest amount in any single operation, even the prior record of EUR 442b set at June 2009 one-year auction. Separately, EUR 29.4b of funds was allotted to 72 banks in a three-month operation. In general, it's believed that the operation was successful in adding liquidity into the financial sector and should ease tension in the credit markets. However, there are criticism that ECB are still just addressing the symptoms of the sovereign debt crisis, rather than the cause. Nonetheless, Euro responded positively to the result while European stocks jumped
Full Report Here...

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2993; (P) 1.3039 (R1) 1.3082; More.
EUR/USD recovered strongly to as high as 1.3197 earlier today but failed to sustain gain and drops sharply in early US session. The pair is still bounded in range of 1.2946 and 1.3212 and thus, intraday bias remains neutral. Also, with 1.3212 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of bottoming and fall from 1.4246 is still in favor to continue. Break of 1.2946 will confirm decline resumption for 1.2873 support first. However, break of 1.3212 will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed at 1.2946 and stronger rebound should then be seen to 1.3538 resistance and above.
Read more...
Special Reports

BOE Votes Unanimously To Leave Rates And Asset Purchases Unchanged

The BOE minutes indicated that policymakers voted unanimously in December to leave the Bank rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at 275B pound. While all of them believed the current global and domestic economic situations did not warrant for monetary easing, they were split on the implications of the November inflation report. While some believed further expansion of the asset buying program would be inevitable, others viewed that the risks to inflation around the target were more balanced in the medium-term.
Read more...

RBA Cut Rates In December As Situation In Eurozone Deteriorated Sharply

The RBA minutes for the December meeting indicated that the rate cut in the month was mainly driven by the dire situation in the Eurozone (in November, the rate cut was due to weaker-than-expected inflation). Domestic economic situation has softened but it has not weakened to an extent that a reduction in interest rate was needed. Indeed, policymakers continued to believe that growth would be close to trend in coming few years. The central bank did not give any hint of monetary policy outlook. However, given the highly uncertain global economic outlook, especially in the Eurozone, and the moderation in inflation, further easing is likely to be seen in as soon as early 2012.
Read more...
Economic Indicators Update
Don’t miss the largest investor and trader gathering in the World—The World MoneyShow Orlando, February 9-12, 2012 at the Gaylord Palms Resort. Be there as recommendations and advice are revealed for how to best position your portfolio for profit—in 2012 and beyond. Register Free Today!


GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Current Account Balance Q3 -4.599B -3.775B -0.921B -0.844B
23:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Oct 0.10%
-0.30%
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Nov -0.54T -0.28T -0.46T -0.50T
03:30 JPY BoJ Rate Decision 0.10%
0.10%
09:30 GBP BoE Minutes 0--0--9 0--0--9 0--0--9
09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Nov 15.2B 16.6B 3.4B
13:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Oct 1.00% 0.40% 1.00%
13:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Oct 0.70% 0.30% 0.50%
15:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Dec A
-21 -20.4
15:00 USD Existing Home Sales Nov
5.09M 4.97M
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
-2.8M -1.9M
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Although the single currency rallied in early European session on announcement that banks took up 489 bln euro at ECB’s three-year loan auction, euro ran into heavy offers ahead of 1.3200 and has retreated sharply from 1.3199 as traders realized that this measure is still very far away from settling eurozone debt crisis, bids at 1.3100 were cleared and stops below 1.3080 and 1.3050-60 were also triggered. At the moment, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.3000-10 and sizeable stops remain below 1.2980 and 1.2940. On the upside, offers are now reported at 1.3070-80 and also 1.3100 with more selling interest likely to emerge around 1.3150 and further out at 1.3200 (in good size).
Read more...
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5620

Despite intra-day brief rise to 1.5775, as the British pound has retreated after faltering below indicated strong resistance at 1.5780, suggesting further consolidation would take place and pullback to 1.5650 would be seen, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.5620 and bring another rise later. Only breach of said strong resistance at 1.5780 would extend the rise from 1.5408 low to 1.5810/15
Read more...

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 101.65

Current rebound suggests a temporary low has been formed at 101.05 and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement of recent decline to 102.85-90 and possibly 103.40-50, however, break there is needed to retain bullishness and bring a stronger correction later to 104.00/10 but reckon resistance at 104.41-52 would hold from here, bring another decline later.
Read more...
Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights