EMU Jobless Up Again In June


Link to ForexLive

Analysis:EMU Jobless Up Again In June;Rate Stable,As Expected

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June preliminary: 9.9% MNI survey median: 9.9% MNI survey range: 9.8% to 9.9% Previous: 9.9% May, 9.9% Apr, 9.9% Mar, 10.0% Feb, 10.0% Jan, 10.0% Dec PARIS (MNI) – Eurozone unemployment edged higher again in June after an upturn in May, but not enough to impact the jobless rate, which was stable at 9.9% for [...]

EMU DATA: June sa unemployment rate 9.9%; May unrev..

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EMU DATA: June sa unemployment rate 9.9%; May unrev 9.9%: Eurostat – EMU June unemployment rate matches MNI median survey fcast – See Mainwire for more details

Euro Zone June unemployment 9.9% unchanged from May

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UK Jul CIPS Manufacturing PMI Shows Unexpected Contraction

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–UK July CIPS Manufacturing PMI 49.1 Vs 51.4 In June – Markit/Reuters –UK July CIPS Manufacturing Lowest Since May 2009 –UK July CIPS Manufacturing PMI Below Median Forecast Of 50.8 LONDON (MNI) – The UK manufacturing sector experienced a shock contraction in July, according to the Markit/Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply survey. The headline [...]

UK manufacturing PMI 49.1 in July

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Down from revised 51.4 in June and some way below median forecast of 51.0. Lowest since June 2009. And I thought things were going so well UPDATE: Sovereign buyer seen in cable in recent trade. Not that we’re a lot higher, presently at 1.6412, sterling having taken a heavy hit from the crappy PMI data.

Italy June jobless 8.0%

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Down slightly from 8.1% in May and slightly better than median forecast of 8.1%.

Eurozone manufacturing PMI July (final) 50.4

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Unchanged from flash read.

French July manufacturing PMI (final) 50.5

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Up from flash 50.1, but down from 52.5 in June. German July manufacturing PMI (final) 52.0, fractionally lower from flash 52.1 and down from 54.6 in June.

Italy July manufacturing PMI 50.1

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Up marginally from 49.9 in June and stronger than median forecast of 49.0. EUR/USD sits at 1.4395, effectively unchanged on the day.

Spain July manufacturing PMI 45.7

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Down from 47.3 in June and weaker than median forecast of 47.0. Lowest since January 2010. Output index falls to 45.0 from 46.5 in June, lowest since June 2009.

FRANCE DATA: July new car registrations down 5.9% in.

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FRANCE DATA: July new car registrations down 5.9% y/y in nominal terms, down 1.2% y/y workday-adjusted - Jan-July registrations +0.2 y/y (nominal and workday-adjusted)

Germany’s Schaeuble Stresses Opposition To States Leaving EMU

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BERLIN (MNI) – German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble in a newspaper interview published Sunday reiterated his opposition to proposals that highly indebted countries should leave the Eurozone. “The Eurozone would suffer an irreparable loss of faith if a country left the monetary union,” Schaeuble told the German weekly Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (FAS). “I don’t want [...]

IEA’s Shadow MPC votes 5-4 to hike bank rate

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Very interesting, but the real MPC is highly likely to leave rates unchanged at this weeks meeting. In fact I’d be amazed if we were to see any movement in UK interest rates through the Summer.

Option expiries for todays 14:00 GMT cut

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EUR/USD: 1.4430, 1.4200 USD/JPY: 77.00, 77.20, 78.25, 80.00, 81.00 AUD/USD: 1.1015, 1.0925

Irish manufacturing PMI falls to 48.2 in July

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From 49.8 in June. Second month of contraction.

Talk Bank of Korea bought USD/KRW around 1,049

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Some of those dollars will no doubt be diversified into euros in the near future.

MNI Survey: Japan Q2 GDP Seen Annualized -2.6% On Export Fall

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– See Separate Tables For Details Of Individual Forecasts TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s gross domestic product in April-June is expected to have posted a third consecutive quarter-on-quarter contraction, down a real 0.7% on quarter, or an annualized 2.6%, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Market News International. But the pace of decline [...]

Australia treasurer: US debt agreement important first step, hopes Congress will pass it

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US fiscal consolidation needed for Global growth

Eurogroup Source:More Financing For EFSF A Topic:German Press

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FRANKFURT (MNI) – Whether the European Financial Stability Facility will need yet more financing to meet the challenges facing it will doubtless become a topic of discussion down the road, the Handelsblatt on Monday reported an unnamed Eurogroup source as having said. The financial daily said that the source from the group of Eurozone finance [...]

It’s not so far-fatched to be worried about France

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David Cottie in the WSJ.

Greenback Bounces off Lows on Relief of U.S. Debt Agreement

ActionForex.com

Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Greenback Bounces off Lows on Relief of U.S. Debt Agreement

Although the greenback dropped to a record low against the Swiss franc of 0.7851 and over 4-month low versus Japanese yen at 76.70, news over the weekend that U.S. Congressional leaders finally agreed a last minute deal to raise debt ceiling helped the dollar to rebound from lows, both currency pairs opened higher today and USD/JPY rallied to as high as 78.05 and Swissy also rebounded to 0.7954 before easing again. Dollar's relief rally came as U.S. lawmakers reached a deal to trim fiscal spending by saving US%917 billion over 10 years and a 12 member joint committee will be created to find measures to cut another US$1.5 trillion by 23 Nov 2011.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 76.37; (P) 77.11; (R1) 77.50; More.

USD/JPY recovers strongly today and the break of 77.56 minor resistance suggests that a temporary low is formed at 76.71. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. But upside should be limited by 78.46 resistance and bring another fall. Below 76.71 will target 100% projection of 85.51 to 79.56 from 82.22 at 76.27 and then 75.98 low.

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Special Reports

RBA To Leaves Cash Rate At 4.75% After Balancing Growth And Inflation Risks

The less-than-expected moderation in 2Q11 inflation in Australia reduced bets that the RBA will cut interest rates in coming months. It also triggered some analysts to forecast the central bank will adopt a rate hike as soon as in August. In our opinion, the central bank will pause for another month, leaving the cash rate at 4.75% as domestic economy is facing the risk of slowdown while debt problems in the US and Eurozone remain unresolved.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
1:00 CNY PMI Manufacturing 50.7 50.2 50.9
2:30 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI 49.3
50.1
7:55 EUR German PMI Manufacturing
52.1 52.1
8:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing
50.4 50.4
8:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing
51 51.3
9:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate
9.90% 9.90%
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M
-0.10% -0.60%
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing
55 55.3
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid
64 68
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.8020

Although the greenback fell marginally below Friday’s low of 0.7853, lack of follow through selling and the subsequent rebound from 0.7851 suggest a minor low is formed and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement to previous support at 0.7990, however, the Ichimoku cloud (now at 0.8016-19) should attract renewed selling interest and bring another decline later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4350

As the single currency has moved higher again after finding renewed buying interest at 1.4347, suggesting the rise from last week’s low at 1.4230 is still in progress and further gain to 1.4450 would be seen, however, weakening of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.4500 and price should falter well below recent high at 1.4537 and bring retreat later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

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