forex trading

Whether Greece gets 5th tranche of aid will depend on Vienna EU officials’ meeting, Eurogroup – Source

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EU, IMF plan to conclude Greek inspection visit Thursday or Friday

CIPS: Manufacturing PMI Falls To 20-Month Low In May

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–UK May CIPS Manufacturing PMI 52.1: Down From 54.4 In April – Markit –Royal Wedding, Bank Holidays, Japan Quake Cited As Factors LONDON (MNI) – The UK manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index dropped to its lowest level in 20 months in May, according to the latest Markit/Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply survey, published by Reuters. [...]

UK BOE: Rate On Outstanding Mortages Dips; Rises On New Ones

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London (MNI) – Interest rates for outstanding mortgages dipped in April but rose markedly for new borrowers, according to Bank of England data. The effective rate on outstanding mortgages fell 1 basis point to 3.48% in April while on new mortgages the rate rose 13bps to 3.85%. The mortgage approvals data for April, which showed [...]

CHINA: PBOC rate hike?

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PBOC may hike rates as early as June 4-6…. Xinhua reports

CABLE: bashed on the Mfg PMI

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Weaker Mfg PMI sends cable reeling down towards 1.6400. Talk of bids around the level with more down towards 1.6380.

UK April Mortgage Approvals Fall; M4 Ex-IOFCs Hits Low: BOE

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–BOE: UK Apr House Purchase Approvals 45,166 vs 47,145 Mar –BOE: UK Apr Net Mortgage Lending stg0.739bn vs stg0.54bn Mar –BOE Apr M4 Ex-IOFCs -0.1% m/m; -2.0% 1q/3m Annualised –BOE: Apr M4 Ex-IOFCs 1q/3m Annualised Lowest on Record –BOE: UK Apr Net Consumer Credit stg0.5mln; Unchanged vs Mar London (MNI) – Mortgage approvals fell in [...]

UK May manufacturing PMI 52.1

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Weaker than median forecast of 54.1. Lowest read since September 2009. Cable down at 1.6433. UK April mortgage approvals 45,166, down from 47,145 in March and weaker than median forecast of 47,500. Lowest since December 2010. We’re doomed………… No early rate hike here methinks…..

Euro zone final May manufacturing PMI 54.6

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Fractionally lower than flash 54.8. And Greek May manufacturing PMI 44.5, down from 46.8 in April. Contraction in new orders accelerates. Oh dear

German May final manufacturing PMI 57.7

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Down from flash 58.2. Hey, we’re back down at 1.4423, where it all started for me this morning. Summertime and the living is easy, fish are jumpin and the cotton is high……… Caaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack!!! Oh well look on the bright side, it’ll soon be Wimbledon

French final May manufacturing PMI 54.9

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Fractionally lower than flash 55.0.

Italy May manufacturing PMI 52.8

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Down from 55.5 in April and below median forecast of 54.0. EUR/USD sits at 1.4435. Time for a little recap on orders/barriers etc: Barrier option interest noted at 1.4450 and 1.4500 Stops seen above 1.4450, 1.4475 and 1.4505

Swiss PMI 59.2 in May

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Better than median forecast of 58.0. Some decent Swiss data this morning. EUR/CHF trading down at 1.2265 from around 1.2300 when I arrived.

Thai central bank raises policy rate by 25 bps to 3.0%

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As expected.

Swiss April retail sales 7.5% y/y

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Much stronger than median forecast of 1.8%

Spain May manufacturing PMI 48.2

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Down from 50.6 in April and weaker than median forecast of 50.0. Lowest read since January 2010. EUR/USD sits at 1.4424, effectively unchanged from level that greeted me about three hours ago.

FRANCE DATA: May new car registrations up 6.2% y/y…

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FRANCE DATA: May new car registrations up 6.2% y/y in nominal terms but down 8.3% y/y workday-adjusted - January-May registrations up 4.4% y/y in nominal terms, up 1.5% y/y workday-adjusted.

FRANCE DATA: May new car registrations up 6.2% y/y…

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FRANCE DATA: May new car registrations up 6.2% y/y in nominal terms but down 8.3% y/y workday-adjusted - January-May registrations up 4.4% y/y in nominal terms, up 1.5% y/y workday-adjusted.

Chinese rating agency puts France on ‘negative’ watch – Xinhua

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German newspaper FAZ: Says it is by now considered certain IMF will not pay its share of 5th tranche of current aid to Greece at end June

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Reuters headline. EUR/USD down at 1.4400. Participation of IMF in new programm for Greece envisaged, cites no sources Not quite sure what second part means. Will have to await details.

US house price fall ‘beats Great Depression slide’

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A grim milestone indeed.

Daily Report: Swiss Franc Regains Strength on Solid Data

Swiss Franc is regaining some strength in early European session after solid economic data. Swiss retail sales jumped sharply by 7.5% yoy in May, comparing to -0.2% yoy fall in April. SVME PMI also unexpectedly rose to 59.2 in May, comparing to consensus of a fall to 57.5. The recovery in both EUR/CHF and USD/CHF might have completed yesterday after GDP disappointment which triggered some profit taking on Swiss longs. But the bullish trend in the swiss franc didn't change and we'd anticipate another record high against dollar and euro in near term as the trend extends.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8486; (P) 0.8516; (R1) 0.8567; More.

USD/CHF is still bounded in tight range as consolidations continues and intraday bias remains neutral. Though, even in case of another recovery, we'd expect upside to be limited by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.8643) and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 61.8% projection of 0.9339 to 0.8552 from 0.8945 at 0.8459 will confirm decline resumption and should target 100% projection level at 0.8158 next.

BOC Left Policy Rate at 1%, Statement More Hawkish

While BOC's maintenance of the overnight rate at 1% is widely expected, the surprise comes from the policy statement which appears more hawkish than previously anticipated. Policymakers showed their concerns about inflationary pressures that have been driven by rising commodity prices. The central bank stated that current stimulus measures will be 'eventually withdrawn' as the economy improves further and excess supply continues to be absorbed.

GMT

Ccy

Events

Actual

Consensus

Revised

1:00

CNY

PMI Manufacturing May

51.6

52.9

1:30

AUD

GDP Q/Q Q1

-1.20%

-0.30%

0.70%

0.80%

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Apr

7.50%

1.90%

-0.20%

7:30

CHF

SVME-PMI May

59.2

57.5

58.4