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BOE: Jan Mortgage Approvals Edge Up In January, M4 Slumps

Posted:

--BOE Jan M4 Ex-intermediate OFCS +4.9% 1Q Ann; +2.1% 4Q Ann --BOE: UK Jan House Purchase Approvals 45,723 vs 42,719 Dec --BOE: UK Jan Net Mortgage Lending stg1.801bn vs -stg0.268bn Dec ...

UK Feb Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Sticks At Survey High

Posted:

--PMI Activity Index At 61.5 Vs Rev. Jan 61.5 (62.0); MNI Median 61.3 --Inflation Pressures Remain Elevated; Employment At New Record High LONDON (MNI) - UK manufacturing activity remained at a record high in February, according to the Markit/CIPS purchasisng managers' survey which began in 1992. ...

UK February manufacturing PMI 61.5

Posted:

Pretty much in line with median forecast of 61.0. January mortgage approvals 45,723, much better than median forecast of 43,000. Mortgage lending +1.801 bln, much better than median forecast of +0.15 bln, and highest since Febraury 2010. On the flip side, January consumer credit -0.333 bln, weaker than median forecast +0.14 bln ...

CORRECTION CORRECTION: Middle East buys EUR/USD

Posted:

In recent trade. So much for that theory. I think I need stronger glasses. Totally misread message sent to me. Apologies.

Germany Seeks Bids On E5 Bn Top Up Of 2.00% S159 Bobl Mar 2

Posted:

FRANKFURT (MNI) - The German federal government on Tuesday formally sought bids for the E5 billion top-up of its 2.00% coupon Series 159 5-year Bundesobligationen (Bobls) to be sold March 2. Bids are due by 1000 GMT on Wednesday, March ...

Euro zone February final manufacturing PMI 59.0

Posted:

In line with flash estimate and as expected. Elsewhere, Italian January unemployment 8.6%, unchanged from December and as expected.

Germany’s SA Unemployment -52K In Feb, Beating All Forecasts

Posted:

SA Unemployment: -52k (pan-German), -39k (West), -13k (East) MNI survey median: -52k m/m MNI survey range: -30k to -8k m/m -- FRANKFURT (MNI) - The ranks of the unemployed in Germany fell much more than generally expected in February, the Federal Labour Office reported on Tuesday. ...

German February s.a jobless total falls -52k to 3.069 mln

Posted:

Much better than median forecast of -15k. Unemployment rate falls to 7.3% from 7.4% in January. EUR/USD has been up to 1.3845 on run of better than expected PMI and German jobs data.

German February final manufacturing PMI 62.7

Posted:

Up fractionally from flash estimate of 62.6.

French February final manufacturing PMI rises to 55.7

Posted:

Up very marginally from flash estimate of 55.3.

Italy February manufacturing PMI 59.0

Posted:

Up from 56.6 in January, some way better than median forecast of 57.0 and highest read since April 2000

EUR/USD slips back slightly; notable seller seen

Posted:

We sit at 1.3817. Sources report a large US hedge fund has stepped in selling EUR/USD in recent trade. Talk of buy stops now through 1.3840. I'd hazard a guess they're not overly large given proximity of Feb 2 high at 1.3862. Talk of stops gathering in 1.3865/75 area, which is ...

Swiss PMI index 63.5 in February

Posted:

Stronger than median forecast of 60.9.

Pop goes the weasel

Posted:

Barrier at 1.6300 is no more. Stops tripped just above and we've been as high as 1.6321 so far. Sell orders seen 1.6335/50. Probably more stops just above there. Trailing stops now being left in 1.6280/85 area by "range break buyers" I'm being told.

EU document for March 11 leaders’ talks: Euro zone should have national debt rules

Posted:

Up to euro zone countries to decide on form of fiscal rule Euro zone countries should make pension, social benefit systems sustainable Wage, productivity developments key for competitiveness, unit labour costs to be monitored EU exec to present proposal on common consolidated corporate tax base in coming weeks (now why do I think ...

JAPAN DATA: Japan’s tax revenue fell 2.3% on year in.

Posted:

JAPAN DATA: Japan's tax revenue fell 2.3% on year in January, reversing a 3.4% rise in December, mainly because inheritance tax revenue fell 35.2% from a year earlier, when it was up sharply on a tax system change, the Ministry of Finance said. Income tax revenue fell 1.7% in January ...

Japan Corporate Sector Leads Recovery, Risks in Households

Posted:

By Yasuhiko Seki TOKYO (MNI) - Japan's industrial output rose for a third straight month in January and core private-sector machinery orders snapped a three-month decline in December in a sign that the world's third-largest economy is moving out of a temporary lull. ...

JAPAN DATA: Sales at major Japanese department in….

Posted:

JAPAN DATA: Sales at major Japanese department stores improved in February from January, preliminary data released by some of them showed. Sales at Isetan rose 2.6% on year in February, up from +1.7% in January. Sales at Mitsukoshi were up 10.8% y/y in February, also up from +8.1% in January. ...

Foreign Ministry says China to maintain diversified investments for foreign currencies

Posted:

Seems like a jolly good idea.

Cable ticks higher as Europe gets underway

Posted:

Cable has advanced about 20 pips since I got in, presently at 1.6285. Interesting to see Sean's report of China with a 1.60-1.6300 dnt in place. Certainly makes sense given recent price action and all the talk Sean had of China buying down around 1.6000. Gotta expect fairly lumpy stops ...

FOREXYARD Daily forex analysis

FOREXYARD Daily Forex Analysis

 "> 01-Mar-2011




" style="display: none;" class="print"> Headlines
*US Dollar Remains Weak despite Dip in Commodity Prices

This week may provide the decision point for the USD. With Non-Farm Payrolls due this Friday, the uncertainty surrounding the American recovery will undoubtedly be made clearer. Today's report on US personal spending at 12:30 GMT may provide a glimpse into other growth prospects before this week's more important data releases get published.


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" style="display: none;" class="print"> Market Trend
EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPYUSD/CHFAUD/USDEUR/GBP
Daily TrendUp Up Up Up No Down
Weekly TrendUp Down Down Down No Up
Resistance1.38851.634082.950.93951.02350.8570
1.38651.632082.750.93751.02150.8550
1.38351.629082.450.93451.01850.8520
Support1.37751.623081.850.92851.01250.8460
1.37451.620081.550.92551.00950.8430
1.37251.618081.350.92351.00750.8410




"> Economic News




USD


USD Lower as Libyan Tensions Escalate


The declining value of the US dollar over the past few weeks has many traders anticipating a potential direction change, particularly as the greenback approaches significant support lines. The EUR/USD rose as high as 1.3840 on Monday, before returning to trade near 1.3815 in today's early morning hours. The GBP/USD also hit as high as 1.6286, up from its recent dip to 1.6030.

The sudden rise in risk appetite was one explanation being offered for this most recent USD boost. The tensions spreading across the Middle East, however, have some speculating a return of risk aversion as tensions in Libya become more pronounced. This has led many investors to begin shifting away from riskier assets and seeking safety in commodities, which has also driven the USD lower.

This week may provide the much-needed decision point for the USD. With Non-Farm Payrolls due this Friday, the uncertainty surrounding the American recovery will undoubtedly be made clearer. Today's report of the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 GMT may provide a glimpse into other growth prospects before this week's more important data releases get published.


EUR


EUR Bullish, but Speculation on NFP Could Undermine Gains


The EUR remained in bullish trading patterns against most of its rivals at the start of this week. The surge into riskier assets has pushed commodity prices higher, driving the USD lower and European currencies to key resistance levels. The EUR/USD currently trades around the 1.3830 level, up slightly since Friday; the EUR/GBP, on the other hand, fell to 0.8485 from Friday's high of 0.8592.

Fiscal concerns continue to plague Europe and, despite forecasts for a sluggish economic recovery in the US, the euro zone remains categorized as a relatively safer investment for many at this time. As such, the EUR continues to trade higher, but recent signals have indicated that risk aversion may be on the rise. This week's NFP report seems to be carrying a stronger-than-usual impact in currency speculation.

The euro zone will be undergoing a relatively intense session on today's economic calendar, with Britain and Europe publishing a long list of indicators throughout the day. It appears likely that at least a few of the major pairs will see sharp movements today and tomorrow, given that this week will experience very significant data releases practically every day, climaxing with Friday's NFP.


JPY


Yen Bearish from Increased Risk Appetite in Europe


The Japanese yen saw a bearish trading session yesterday, losing ground against all of its currency crosses, except the US dollar. The JPY fell against the GBP and closed around 133.50. The yen also lost 130 points versus the EUR, ending Monday at 113.25, up from Friday's 111.95.

The JPY's trends will be affected by the rallies of its primary currency pairs today. It seems that the GBP and EUR are expected to continue trading volatile today with the release of a vast array of indicators.

Traders should keep a close look on the news coming from Britain and Europe as these economies will be the deciding factors in the JPY's movement today. It is also advisable for traders to follow any unexpected comments coming from key Japanese governmental figures, as this is also likely to lead to further JPY volatility.


Crude Oil


Crude Oil Plummets over $5 a Barrel


During yesterday's early afternoon hours, Crude Oil received a hasty sell-off when investors unwound their positions for riskier assets. With a recent boost to equity markets, the USD has also found itself losing strength to a number of its currency rivals, particularly the EUR. If this stock rally can continue, we may see these trends persist throughout the rest of the week.

The price of Crude Oil also dropped sharply as the demand for the commodity appears to have abated. U.S. Crude Oil inventories posted a mild decrease in the amount of Crude stocks in storage. The report failed to meet market expectations, helping to drive the price of Crude lower, reaching $96.86 from last week's high of $103.34.


"> Technical News




EUR/USD


The recent upswing seen in this currency pair has the price floating near the upper border of the Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour and daily charts, signaling moderate downward pressure. The recent bearish cross on the 4-hour chart's Stochastic (slow) adds weight to the notion of an imminent downward correction. Going short with tight stops might be a wise choice today.


GBP/USD


This currency pair is currently giving off mixed signals. With the RSI on the hourly chart showing the price floating in the over-bought territory, there may be a downward correction in the nearest future. However, with the price floating in the over-sold territory on the daily chart's RSI, the longer-term movement will likely be in an upward direction. Capturing the imminent downward correction and then riding out the uptrend may be a wise strategy today.


USD/JPY


The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the RSI of the daily chart, indicating modest support to the latest price dip in this pair. There also appears to be a bullish cross forming on the daily chart's Stochastic (slow) which supports this notion. Going long might be a good choice today.


USD/CHF


This pair appears to have found solid support at the 0.9290 level. The daily RSI has the price in over-sold territory and the daily Stochastic (slow) shows a fresh bullish cross and an ascending price movement. These indications appear to suggest an imminent upturn in this pair. Going long may be a smart tactic today.


"> The Wild Card




USD/SEK


After the latest plummet in price, this pair appears to have a number of indicators approaching corrective territory. Forex traders will want to keep an eye on the daily and weekly Stochastic (slow) indicators, as well as the RSIs on both charts for any signs of the impending swing. The key support line to watch for is 6.3025, after which we may likely see corrective price action with targets near 6.4000 and 6.5000, sequentially.