ForexLive Asia Wrap Thu. 22Nov2012: China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Day


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Posted: 22 Nov 2012 02:06 AM PST
Oh dear :(
Posted: 22 Nov 2012 02:05 AM PST
  • Talks with troika are ongoing, hopes issues will be settled soon. ( Cyprus’ President earlier said  that country was close to a deal.. if you believe that)
  • No risk whatsoever of halt in payments….  ( won’t that be up to troika?)
  • 2013 Budget contains what was agreed with troika, but… may have further adjustments
  • Final bailout figure will be known after Pimco bank report
  • Troika talks may be on Dec3 Eurogroup agenda
  • 2013 deficit to be 4.4% of GDP
Posted: 22 Nov 2012 01:54 AM PST
Sold  a total of Eur 3.88lbn of 2015, 2017, and 2021 bonds, out of a targeted Eur 2.5-3.5 bln
Sold:
Eur 1.712 bln of 2015 Bono, yield 3.617% (from 3.66%), cover 2.09 (from 2.83)
Eur 645 mln  of  2017 Obligaciones, yield 4.477% ( from 4.77%), cover 2.61 (from 2.47)
Eur 1.523 bln  of  2021 Obligaciones , yield 5.517%,  cover 1.77
Posted: 22 Nov 2012 01:07 AM PST
Up from a revised Eur-657 mln in Oct 2011
Posted: 22 Nov 2012 01:04 AM PST
At 5.66%.
EUR/USD touch firmer on the day, presently at 1.2865.
Sell orders, as aforementioned, clustered up at 1.2875/95.  Barrier option interest touted at 1.2900.
Posted: 22 Nov 2012 12:59 AM PST
In line with median forecast.
Flash Nov Mfg PMI rises to46.2  (exp 45.5) from 45.4 in Oct, highest since March
Flash Nov Services PMI falls to 45.7 (exp46.0) from 46.0 in Oct, lowest since July 2009
Posted: 22 Nov 2012 12:47 AM PST
  • EU budget cuts beyond Eur75bln ‘not possible’
  • Doesn’t want to continue as Eurogroup chief beyond the spring
Posted: 22 Nov 2012 12:35 AM PST
Cross up at 106.28.
Japanese pension fund been notable buyer this morning.
Talk of 106.50 barrier option interest, for what that’s worth.
Posted: 22 Nov 2012 12:28 AM PST
Up fractionally from 47.7 in October.
Posted: 21 Nov 2012 11:59 PM PST
From final 43.5 in October.
Posted: 21 Nov 2012 11:56 PM PST
Back up again through 106.00 in recent trading on buying from Japanese funds, but offers sit from 106.15/25, with likely buy stops just above  the Asian highs of 106.26.
Above here is the  May 2 high at 106.55 and  tech res at the 100 week MA at 106.74,weekly cloud top at 106.75. Buy stops are seen on a break here (106.75) and through 107.00.
Cross currently sits at 106.00
Posted: 21 Nov 2012 11:24 PM PST
EUR/USD:  Bids 1.2820/30, larger at 1.2800/10 ( 200 day MA 1.2804) sell stops below ahead of more bids 1.2770/80, and  1.2730/40. Offers 1.2875/95 (real money, options) in front of a 1.2900 barrier , likely buy stops just above.
GBP/USD:   Bids 1.5920/30, 1.5880/90 and bids/ tech 1.5850/60 (200 day MA at 1.5855), Offers 1.5965/75 larger up at 1.5990/00 (talk of 1.6000 barrier, kijun line 1.6002), buy stops above.
EUR/GBP:  Offers 0.8055/60 ahead of tech res 0.8075 (200 day MA) and stronger offers 0.8080/8100. Bids /tech supp/options at 0.8000/10, sell stops just below ahead of more bids 0.7985/95, tech supp cloud base 0.7980, and at tech supp 79.65- 100 day MA.
USD/JPY:  Bids 82.20/30, some weak sell stops just below ahead of more bids 82.00/10. Offers 82.60/75 (82.75 barrier) and very large offers 82.90/00 from exporters / option protection (83.00 barrier) large buy stops just above.
EUR/JPY:  Offers 106.15/25, possible buy stops above, ahead of tech res offers 106.45/55 (May 2 high 106.55) and offers 106.90/00. Bids 105.70/80 and 105.00/10
AUD/JPY:  Bids 85.50/60 and tech supp 85.10/20 sell stops below through 85.00. Offers 85.90/00, buys tops above ahead of tech res 86.40/.50 (Apr 2 high 86.50)
AUD/USD: Bids 1.0370/80 ( 100 day MA 1.0373), 1.0345/55 real money sovereigns, possible small sell stops below ahead of larger support 1.0335 down to 1.0300 (cloud base 1.0334, 200 day MA 1.0314. Offers 1.0400/10 and larger from 1.0425 (Nov 20 high) up to 1.0450. Buy stops through 1.0460.
EUR/AUD: Bids 1.2350/60 and 1.2290/10, Offers 1.2390/10 buy stops  through 1.2415 ( 200 day MA at 1.2412, 31.8% fibo of Oct-Nov fall around 1.2415) ahead of offers 1.2490/00 (50% fibo of  same fall around 1.2492)
NZD/USD: Bids 0.8125/40 (daily cloud base 0.8136, 100 day MA 0.8129), sell stops through 0.8120 ahead of bids 0.8100/.10 with more sell stops through 0.8100. Offers 0.8190/00 large buy stops through 0.8210.
Posted: 21 Nov 2012 11:09 PM PST
We’ve already got a 1.27-1.29 poll on the go, but lets have a little poll within a poll.
We’re at 1.2850.
What’ll we see first 1.2800 or 1.2900?
Posted: 21 Nov 2012 11:06 PM PST
Posted: 21 Nov 2012 10:59 PM PST
Posted: 21 Nov 2012 10:39 PM PST
Let’s all pretend to be American, just for today.
Paaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarty!!!
And now for some sensible stuff :(
EUR/USD sits at 1.2846.
Buy orders seen clustered 1.2800/10, trailing sell stops below.
Sell orders clustered 1.2875/95 ahead of rumoured 1.2900 barrier option interest. Go figure…..
Now where did I put my campari and soda…….
Posted: 21 Nov 2012 10:36 PM PST
Hard to say really, the  market is thinning out now with the US observing ‘Thanksgiving’ today and the Japanese ‘Labour Thanksgiving’ holiday tomorrow but a strong Nikkei is helping the cause for the USD bulls.
There are some reasonable bids down in the 82.20/30 area from momentum/macro funds and Japanese real money. Offers sit up from 82.60 up to barriers at 82.75, with very large offers reportedly in front of 83.00 (also a barrier) and equally large buy stops just above
Personally i reckon we still edge higher, albeit laboriously,( but then i’m a perma USD/JPY bull), and target the late  March/early April highs around 83.30/40 ahead of a full retracement  of the  fall from 15 March highs of 84.19.
USD’s presently parked around 82.45 after Asian highs of 82.59
Posted: 21 Nov 2012 10:31 PM PST
The headline says it all, the eyes of the world were fixed on the release of the China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI to get a gauge on how the Chinese economy is performing – signs have been in place of a bottoming in the Chinese slowdown, would the PMI figure confirm the better readings of late, or dash hopes?
  • The number came in at 50.4 (vs 49.5 previous),
  • A 13 month high.
Other releases today were sparse:
  • NZ Visitor Arrivals -1.7% MoM
  • Japan Stocks and Bonds flows
  • Japanese Chain Store Sales fell 4% (YoY) after a 2% fall for the previous month.

  • EUR/USD started the day with a sharp move on stop loss buying above 1.2830, taking it to 1.2868 before trading steadily lower for the balance of the session in a ‘fill the gap’ type move. EUR/JPY, of course traded higher (above 106.20).
  • USD/JPY retried its NY highs, as high as 89.59; trading a little lower-to sideways for the balance of the session.
  • AUD ticked steadily higher into sellers at 1.0380/85, before spiking on the Chinese PMI Flash to 1.0402. There was no follow-through, it fell back to that 1.0380/85 level and spent the afternoon there.
Posted: 21 Nov 2012 10:23 PM PST
Posted: 21 Nov 2012 10:06 PM PST

For the 22 Nov 2012 @ 1000 NY/1500 GMT cut:

EUR/USD: 1.2765, 1.2840, 1.2925, 1.2980
USD/JPY: 81.00, 82.00, 82.25, 82.30
EUR/GBP: 0.8000
GBP/USD: 1.5985, 1.6000
AUD/USD: 1.0335, 1.0400
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