Euro zone November economic sentiment rises to 85.7



Link to ForexLive
Posted: 29 Nov 2012 02:04 AM PST
From +5% in September
Posted: 29 Nov 2012 02:02 AM PST
From revised 84.3 in October quite a bit better than Reuters’ median poll of 84.2
Business climate -1.19 from revised -1.61gain quite a bit better than Reuters’ median poll of -1.60.
Posted: 29 Nov 2012 01:42 AM PST
…keep being asked about this pair.
I’m remaining stubbornly bullish for the moment, but feel the pair is trapped between some large demand around 1.0450 and the importer offers ahead of the 1.0500 barrier. There are also expiries today for  the NY cut  at 1.0450 and 1.0465.
It’s not a clear direction at this point, but with mixed forecasts on Chinese mineral demand, S&P’s affirmation of China’s sovereign rating, and rate cut talk from the RBA at Tuesday’s meeting the market appears to be a bit balanced,
EUR/AUD may however hold some clues, with a break back up through 1.2430  exerting some down side pressure on AUD/USD, but we have so far failed to close above the 200 day MA (1.2412) in  the cross since Nov 2,  and until we do close above, I ‘m sticking to my guns.
AUD’s presently around 1.0465
Posted: 29 Nov 2012 01:40 AM PST
We’re into the aforementioned 1.2980/00 sell orders, having been as high as 1.2988 so far.
Talk has ‘decent’ sell interest from a US name lying in wait at 1.3000.
Personally I’d like to see them filled and then some, but guess I can’t have everything………….or maybe I can ;)
Posted: 29 Nov 2012 01:06 AM PST
S&P cites economic growth potential, healthy fiscal position, sees no major change in policy direction on change of leadership
  • Projects Chinese per capita real GDP growth at 7.3%
  • Govt debt up  around 1.4% of GDP/yr over 2012-2015
  • Net general govt debt  near 13.4% of GDP by 2014
  • Chinese average income lower than similar -rates sovereigns
Posted: 29 Nov 2012 01:02 AM PST
Better  than Reuters’ median forecast of 87.7    :)
But overall business confidence index fell to 76.4 in November from 77.1 in October :(
Posted: 29 Nov 2012 12:59 AM PST
Apparently bosses say they would rather employ someone "who will be their friend or maybe even their romantic partner", with whom they feel a "spark", researchers have suggested.
……. a study find good looks, a winning smile and a little gentle flirtation may be the key to securing a job after all.
;)
Posted: 29 Nov 2012 12:57 AM PST
Less than Reuters consensus of 15k, but 8th consecutive monthly rise
SA Jobless rate unchanged at 6.9%
Posted: 29 Nov 2012 12:39 AM PST
Aforementioned buy stops have been tripped through 1.2970 in EUR/USD and we’ve been as high as 1.2977 so far. The demonstrably better than expected Swedish Q3 GDP will have given risk appetite a little boost.
Sell orders now clustered 1.2980/00, buy stops through 1.3005.
Personally I’d like to see the sell interest taken out easily, just so as I can look real smart and feel good about myself.  I need constant reassurrance you see as I have very low self esteem.  It all goes back to my childhood…..        ;)
Posted: 29 Nov 2012 12:38 AM PST
Italy’s Tesoro is looking to sell EUR 4-6 bln of  5yr 3.5% Nov 2017 BTP and 10yr 5.5% Nov 2022 BTP’s
Results are due around 1010GMT
Posted: 29 Nov 2012 12:31 AM PST
WOW!!
Demonstrably stronger than Reuter’s median forecasts +0.1%, +0.4%  respectively.
WAY TO GO SWEDEN!!!
Posted: 29 Nov 2012 12:27 AM PST
Lowest since early April.
Meanwhile, Italy 10 year govt bond yield down -7  bps at 4.52%.  Lowest in nearly two years. Yippeeeeeeeeeee!!
Jelly and icecream for everyone :)
Posted: 29 Nov 2012 12:09 AM PST
EUR/USD:  Bids 1.2900/100, and 1.2880/90, large sell stops below through 1.2870. Buy stops through 1.2970, offers 1.2980/00 buy stops through 1.3005 ahead of tech res 1.3025, (25 Oct highs) and further offers 1.3050/70
GBP/USD:   Bids 1.6000/10 (kijun line 1.6002) sell stops below, more bids 1.5970/80 (daily cloud base 1.5973) and 1.5950/60 with sell stops below.  Offers 1.6030/50, likely buy stops above ahead of tech lvl 1.6069 (50%- 1.6309-1.5829 fall) offers 1.6075/85 (cloud top 1.6079, 1.6084 trend line res), and 1.6200/20 (Oct 5 high 1.6117).
EUR/GBP:  Strong offers 0.8100/10, buy stops above through 0.8115 ahead of larger offers 0.8145/60 with likely large buy stops above 0.8165. Bids /tech supp/options at 0.8065/75 (200 day MA 0.8067, also daily cloud top), more bids 0.8040/50 and 0.8000/10, sell stops below.
USD/JPY:  Bids 81.90/10 (Tenkan line 81.96) sell stops below through 81.85 ahead of more bids 81.50/70, sell stops below. Offers 82.20/30 and 82.40/50, buy stops above  ahead of offers 82.75/85 from exporters / option protection and larger ahead of 83.00 barrier, large buy stops just above.
EUR/JPY:  Offers up at 106.50/70 and 107.00/15 107.13 Mon high) buy stops above through 107.15 ahead of offers 107.40/50 (107.48 April 27 high). Bids 106.00/20 sell stops below and 106.00/10 with sell stops just below, ahead of  more bids 105.30/50
AUD/JPY:  Bids 85.75/85 and 85.40/60, likely sell stops through 85.35 (85.36 Fri low) and tech supp 85.10/20, sell stops below through 85.00. Offers 86.10/20, tech res 86.40/50 (Mon high 86.44 and Apr 2 high 86.50), likely buy stops above. Ahead of tech res 86.70/75 ( 80.74 Apr 2 high)
AUD/USD: Bids 1.0450/60 possible sell stops through 1.0440 ahead of more bids 1.0400/10. Sell stops through 1.0400, tech supp/bids 1.0375/85 (100 day MA 1.0386), Offers 1.0480/90 importers, (barrier 1.0500) large buy stops above ahead of offers/tech res 1.0510/20 (Sep 21 high 1.5019) and trend channel resistance 1.0545/50.
EUR/AUD: Bids 1.2340/50 (tankan line 1.2340) and larger down at 1.2290/10. Offers 1.2400/20 (, 200 day MA at 1.2412, 31.8% fibo of Oct-Nov fall around 1.2406) likely buy stops through 1.2425 ahead of offers 1.2490/00 (50% fibo of  same fall around 1.2492)
NZD/USD: Bids 0.8190/10 (cloud top 0.8200, 55 day MA 0.8208, sell stops below ahead of bids 0.8160/70. Strong offers 0.8250/60 buy stops above ahead of tech res/offers 0.8290/0.8310 (Nov 7 high 0.8309)
Posted: 28 Nov 2012 11:57 PM PST
Doesn’t seem to be strong conviction which direction next 50 pips will come.  Not overly surprising given the whipsaw price action seen yesterday.
We’re at 1.2952.
Buy orders clustered 1.2900/10 and 1.2880/90, sell stops below there.  Buy stops through 1.2970, sell orders clustered 1.2980/00 before more stops through 1.3005.
If you put a gun to my head (and Pete’s) we’d have to go with next 50 pips coming to the topside.
Posted: 28 Nov 2012 11:28 PM PST
….After yesterday’s mauling which saw the metal plunge to around $1705 .60 on sovereign debt concerns as short term investors cashed in on Friday’s rally.  There was talk of a possible ‘fat finger’ behind the move, but the more likely reason is  a sell order of over 7,500 contracts (100 ounce a piece) hitting the market as the Comex  opened
Asia’s seen a small drift lower from $1724 high’s  currently sitting around $1720. Support is seen towards $1708 and $1700, ahead of  100 day MA currently around $1694.75. Initial resistance is noted towards $1730 and then $1740.
Posted: 28 Nov 2012 11:24 PM PST
Groovy….
It’s all chemically driven man…..
Posted: 28 Nov 2012 11:01 PM PST
Slightly weaker than Reuters’ median forecasts +0.1%, -0.9% respectively.
Posted: 28 Nov 2012 10:45 PM PST
Compared to Reuter’s median forecasts of  +0.2%, +0.9% respectively.
On the flip side, Q2 data was revised down to +0.3% y/y from previous +0.5%.
But all in all very encouraging.
And who said making watches, chocolate and cuckoo clocks doesn’t pay?
Posted: 28 Nov 2012 10:34 PM PST
Sighs of relief at the RBA…..
(If you want to read the whole article do a google search using above headline)
I see the aussie importer sell orders I mentioned up at 1.0480/90 proved a nice little barrier to the topside (what fab info!!)
We’re down at 1.0453 from session high………1.0479.
Posted: 28 Nov 2012 10:26 PM PST
So far…I’ve heard of
GBP/USD: 1.6100
AUD/USD: 1.0500
USD/JPY: 83.00

I'll let you know if I hear any more
at

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