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Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Dolllar Falls Versus Other Major Currenecies on Weaker-than-Expected U.S. Q2 GDP The greenback tumbled across the board after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP data which showed U.S. economy grew at a slower pace of 1.3% in Q2 versus forecast of 1.7% and previous quarter number was also largely revised downward from 1.9% to only 0.4%. Swiss franc surged sharply to another record high of 0.7876 (cleared stops at 0.7990 and option barriers at 0.7950 and 0.7900 without much resistance). Safe-haven demand continued to support the Swiss franc as both U.S. and eurozone are facing their own debt problem, the movements in Swissy has been pretty much one-sided, no bids are reported on the way down and more option barriers are tipped at 0.7850 and further out at 0.7800 with offers lined up from as low as 0.7900 up to 0.7900 and mixture of offers and stops is seen at 0.7990-0.8000. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9459; (P) 0.9491; (R1) 0.9523; More. USD/CAD's rebound from 0.9406 extends further to as high as 0.9565 in early US session and the break of 0.9530 suggests that a short term bottom is formed at 0.9406, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is now mildly on the upside for further rise to near term falling trend line (now at 0.9625). On the downside, below 0.9497 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9406 first. Break will extend recent decline towards 61.8% projection of 1.0671 to 0.9444 from 0.9912 at 0.9154. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Special Reports

Swiss Franc Surges on Poor US GDP and Spain, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF at New Record Lows The Swiss franc jumps to new record high against Dollar, Euro and Sterling today as risk aversion dominates the markets. Q GDP data from US was shockingly poor. Real GDP grew at 1.3% annualized pace in Q2, substantially below market expectation of 1.7%. Prior quarters figure was also revised down from 1.9% to a very poor 0.4%. While GDP has now increased for eight straight quarters, the poor growth rate suggests that the US economy is still finding much difficulty in gathering sustainable momentum for recovery. Data from Canada was also poor, with GDP showing -0.3% mom contraction in May versus expectation of 0.1% mom. Read more...

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Jun -1.40% 3.00% 2.20% 2.40% 23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Jul -30 -26 -25 23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Jul 52.1 50.7 23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Jun -4.20% -2.30% -1.90% 23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Jun 4.60% 4.60% 4.50% 23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Jul 0.40% 0.20% 0.10% 23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y 0.40% 0.50% 0.60% 23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jun 3.90% 4.50% 6.20% 05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Jun 5.80% 4.60% 6.40% 06:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Jun 6.30% 1.70% -2.80% 08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Jun 48.4K 46.0K 45.9K 46.4K 08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Jun -0.50% 0.30% 0.10% 08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Jun -0.70% -0.20% 09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Jul P 2.50% 2.70% 2.70% 12:30 CAD GDP M/M May -0.30% 0.10% 0.00% 12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Jun -0.30% 0.00% -0.20% -0.30% 12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Jun -2.20% -2.10% -5.20% -5.30% 12:30 USD Employment Cost Index Q2 0.70% 0.50% 0.60% 12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q2 A 1.30% 1.70% 1.90% 0.40% 12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q2 A 2.30% 2.00% 2.00% 2.50% 13:45 USD Chicago PMI Jul 58.8 60 61.1 13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Jul F 63.7 64 63.8
Forex Trade Ideas
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Target met and buy again at 1.6300 Despite intra-day brief fall to 1.6261, lack of follow through selling on break of previous support at 1.6262 and current anticipated rebound suggest the fall from 1.6440 has possibly ended at 1.6261 and consolidation with mild upside bias remains for a test of resistance at 1.6383, break there would add credence to this view and extend gain to 1.6400, then retest of recent high of 1.6440. Read more... Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 111.75 As the single currency has remained under pressure, suggesting the rebound from 109.58 has possibly ended there and consolidation with downside bias is seen for further weakness to 110.00, however, break of said support at 109.58 is needed to confirm the decline from 123.33 has resumed and extend fall towards 109.00. Read more... Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): 1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530 Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights U.S. Second-Quarter 2011 GDP Report Disappoints Canadian May GDP Unexpectedly Declines Dollar Slides as Economic Growth Evaporates U.S. Real GDP Rises by just 1.3% in Q2. First Quarter Growth Revised Down to 0.4%. U.S. GDP Shocker Technical Highlights USD/CAD Breaks Above Double Bottom After Slew of Poor Canadian Data FX Thoughts for the Day EUR/USD Pushes Below 1.4250; Returning to Consolidation with Bearish Bias EURUSD - Corrective Weakness Set For The 1.4142 Level

Eurozone Annual Inflation Slows To +2.5% In July

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• Greek June PPI inflation 6.6%y/y vs 7.3% in May
• Italy July preliminary CPI (NIC index) +0.3% m/m, +2.7% y/y
• Analysis: Eurozone Annual Inflation Slows To +2.5% In July
• EMU DATA: Eurozone annual inflation slowed more than.
• Euro zone july inflation estimated at 2.5% y/y (consenus +2.7%) vs 2.7% in June
• UK Jun Mortgage Approvals Up Sharply; Net Mortgage Loans Fall
• UK June consumer credit +0.4 bln stg vs May +0.3 bln (consenus +0.3 bln)
• UK DATA: Jun Mortgage Approvals Up Sharply; Net Fall.
• Moody’s revision relies heavily on short-term market developments- Treasury letter to investors
• CDS updates
• Bk of Spain: Spain May current account -3.556bln euros vs -3.36bln in April
• Cable stops triggered
• Euro levels
• EUR/USD bounce…
• Option expiries today
• Funds/Real money behind the Ozzie fall
• FRANCE DATA: June PPI -0.1% m/m, +6.1% y/y; May: y/y.
• FRANCE DATA: June sa consumer spending on goods m/m,.
• France June PPI -0.1%m/m, +6.1% y/y
• USD/CHF still under pressure

Greek June PPI inflation 6.6%y/y vs 7.3% in May Posted: May retails sales -10.9% y/y after 8.8% drop in April

Italy July preliminary CPI (NIC index) +0.3% m/m, +2.7% y/y Posted:

Analysis: Eurozone Annual Inflation Slows To +2.5% In July Posted: July flash: +2.5% y/y MNI survey median: +2.7% y/y MNI survey range: +2.6% to +3.0% y/y June final: +2.7% y/y FRANKFURT (MNI) – Annual inflation in the Eurozone unexpectedly slowed to a five-month low of 2.5% in July, Eurostat reported on Friday. This suggests that consumer prices fell 0.6% on the month. The majority of [...]

EMU DATA: Eurozone annual inflation slowed more than. Posted: EMU DATA: Eurozone annual inflation slowed more than expected to +2.5% in July, a five-month low, Eurostat reported on Friday, citing preliminary estimates. – EMU Jul y/y flash HICP below all forecasts (MNI median +2.7%) – See Mainwire for more details

Euro zone july inflation estimated at 2.5% y/y (consenus +2.7%) vs 2.7% in June Posted:

UK Jun Mortgage Approvals Up Sharply; Net Mortgage Loans Fall Posted: –BOE: UK Jun House Purchase Approvals 48,421 vs 46,418 May –BOE: Jun Mortgage Approvals Highest Since May 2010 –BOE: UK Jun Net Mortgage Lending -stg0.069bn vs stg1.012bn May –BOE: UK Jun Net Mortgage Lending lowest since Dec 2010 –BOE: Jun M4 EX-IOFCs Up 1.6% 4Q/12M Annualised London (MNI) – Mortgage approvals rose sharply in June [...]

UK June consumer credit +0.4 bln stg vs May +0.3 bln (consenus +0.3 bln) Posted: June mortgage approvals 48,421 vs May 46,418 (cons 46,000) June Mortgage lending -0.1 bln stg vs May +1.0 bln (cons +1 bln) June M4 Money supply growth-0.5%m/m, -0.7% y/y June M4 excluding intermediate other financial companies -0.1% m/m

UK DATA: Jun Mortgage Approvals Up Sharply; Net Fall. Posted: UK DATA: Jun Mortgage Approvals Up Sharply; Net Mortgage Loans Fall –BOE: UK Jun House Purchase Approvals 48,421 vs 46,418 May –BOE: Jun Mortgage Approvals Highest Since May 2010 –BOE: UK Jun Net Mortgage Lending -stg0.069bn vs stg1.012bn May –BOE: UK Jun Net Mortgage Lending lowest since Dec 2010 –BOE: Jun M4 EX-IOFCs Up 1.6% [...]

Moody’s revision relies heavily on short-term market developments- Treasury letter to investors Posted: Spain to reiterate unconditional commitment to fiscal discipline during Moody’s review period Moody’s fear on higher funding costs for Spain misplaced Spain’s ban on bailing out regions enshrined in law, conducive to fiscal discipline Spain’s overhaul of bkg sector, transparency in stress tests have improved confidence

CDS updates Posted: 5 years; Spanish up 25 bps to 370 Italian up 19 bps to 318 US up 3 bps to 67

Bk of Spain: Spain May current account -3.556bln euros vs -3.36bln in April Posted:

Cable stops triggered Posted: Just now on the move down through 1.6290, to a low of 1.6285 but follow through was weak. Support is seen below around 1.6260/65, the lows seen on Monday. Cable’s at 1.6295

Euro levels Posted: Talk of offers 1.4300/05 with stops through 1.4310

EUR/USD bounce… Posted: I haven’t a clue why but somehow have a gut feeling that we won’t break the 1.4250-1.4400 range just yet. One suggestion is that market is reacting to Greek source comments on China that they might be interested in Greek bond buybacks, but this is old news that came out o/n Anyway euro’s up around [...]

Option expiries today Posted: For the 10.00 NY cut: Nearby ones include USD/JPY 77.10, 78.00, 78.30 AUD/USD 1.0850, 1.0965, 1.1000 I’ll update again a bit later

Funds/Real money behind the Ozzie fall Posted: AUD/USD clumped to a low of 1.0927 from funds/real money accounts which has been ongoing i’m told . The 1.0925/30 level offering some support which was the level it launched higher from the recent strong CPI. Ozzie’s around 1.0940

FRANCE DATA: June PPI -0.1% m/m, +6.1% y/y; May: y/y. Posted: FRANCE DATA: June PPI -0.1% m/m, +6.1% y/y; May: -0.5% m/m, +6.2% y/y – June manufacturing PPI -0.1% m/m, +5.9% y/y – June oil product prices -2.2% m/m, +21.6% y/y – June food and tobacco prices +0.4% m/m, +7.3% y/y – June industry import prices -0.1% m/m, +7.0% y/y – See Mainwire for more details

FRANCE DATA: June sa consumer spending on goods m/m,. Posted: FRANCE DATA: June sa consumer spending on goods +1.2% m/m, +1.8% y/y - Above most analysts’ forecasts; MNI survey median fcst: +1.0% m/m - 2Q consumer spending -1.8% q/q; 1Q +0.1% q/q - May spending revised to -0.3% m/m from -0.8% m/m

France June PPI -0.1%m/m, +6.1% y/y Posted: May -0.5%m/m, +6.2% y/y June Mfg PPI -0.1%m/m , +5.9% y/y

USD/CHF still under pressure Posted: Ranging again this morning just above the 0.7990 level which is being protected again by a major NY bank. I’m told there are bids on the machines of around $500 at 0.7992, which is currently deterring further pushes. Some macro sellers have been seen in the EUR/CHF this morning with a low of 1.1420. Bids are [...]