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Posted: 31 Oct 2012 02:04 AM PDT
EUR/USD is up at 1.3000 having been as high as 1.3005, the pairing making pretty decent gains despite much market talk of negative month end flows.
It should be noted that the 4.00 London fix is the important fix for these flows, so it may be a little premature to rule them out. Reports now have buy stops through both 1.3015 and 1.3020, take your pick.    |
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Posted: 31 Oct 2012 02:01 AM PDT
Inline with forecasts but an increase from August’s revised 10.6%
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Posted: 31 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT
FRANKFURT (MNI) – The Troika is not discussing a new debt
restructuring plan for Greece, Thomas Wieser, President of the key European Working Group (EWG), told German radio Deutschland Radio Kultur on Wednesday. “In none of the discussion rounds [with the Troika] was the word ‘haircut’ mentioned,” Wieser said. Media reports about a possible debt restructuring are nothing more than mutually reinforcing press speculation and “have nothing to do with the work of the Troika,” he said. The EWG, which meets in Brussels, is composed of senior finance officials from Eurozone governments. Its main task is to prepare the agenda for meetings of the Eurozone finance ministers, known as the Eurogroup. That group is scheduled to hold a teleconference call to discuss Greece starting at 1300 GMT today. Wieser told the radio station that he would not exclude a new deal with Greece to show a “more measured adjustment program,” given the collapse of the country’s economy. “It is possible that this will require additional liquidity. However, based on all we have heard, it would not require additional funds from the 16 member states [but] could be financed within the framework for the current program,” Wieser said. Still, he cautioned that talks between the Troika and Greece have not been concluded yet. “They are close to the end, but as is well known the last steps in these agreements are always the most difficult,” Wieser said. –Frankfurt newsroom, +49-69-720-142; jtreeck@mni-news.com [TOPICS: M$X$$$,M$$CR$,MGX$$$,M$Y$$$]  |
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Posted: 31 Oct 2012 01:21 AM PDT
Back up towards the earlier Asian session highs of 1.0392. The strong building approvals data which came out o/n has started to give some comfort to the RBA as the economy starts to recognize the recent rate cuts, but there’s apparently some heavy offers lined up ahead from 1.0390 through to 1.0410 to thwart the bulls, with EUR/AUD adding to the cause as the cross breaks back up through 1.2500.
Buys stops apparently lie just above 1.0410, ahead of more offers up at 1.0440/50 ( 1.0450 possible barrier) which also includes a 61.8% retracement of the mid Sept-early Oct fall around 1.0444. AUD’s around 1.0387 with the cross at 1.2508  |
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Posted: 31 Oct 2012 12:50 AM PDT
FRANCE DATA: Sept PPI +0.3% m/m, +2.9% y/y; Aug: +1.3% m/m, +2.8% y/y
– Manufacturing PPI +0.3% m/m, +2.4 y/y – Oil product prices +0.1% m/m, +13.4% y/y – Food and tobacco prices +0.9% m/m, +4.0% y/y – Industry import prices -0.6% m/m, +2.3% y/y – Please see MNI Mainwire for further details  |
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Posted: 31 Oct 2012 12:50 AM PDT
FRANCE DATA: Sept sa consumer spending on goods +0.1% m/m, -0.3% y/y
– Above most analysts’ forecasts; MNI survey median forecast: flat m/m – 3Q consumer spending +0.2% q/q; 2Q -0.2% q/q – Please see MNI Mainwire for further details  |
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Posted: 31 Oct 2012 12:48 AM PDT
Up strongly from -0.8%m/m in August but forecasts were for +0.1% m/m , -0.2% y/y
Sept Producer prices +0.3%m/m, +2.9% y/y (above forecasts of +0.1%m/m, +2.2% y/y, but below August’s reading of +1.3%)  |
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Posted: 31 Oct 2012 12:22 AM PDT
EUR/USD: Offers 1.2980 up to 1.3010, expected buy stops just above through 1.3015. Bids 1.2920/30 sell stops below ahead of larger bids 1.2880/00 (sovereigns) sell stops through 1.2875
GBP/USD: Bids 1.6065/75, larger down at 1.6000/20, sell stops below and through 1.5975. Offers 1.6090/00 possible buy stops just above ahead of more offers 1.6120/40 (downtrend line resistance around 1.6120 from Sept 21 highs), EUR/GBP: Offers 0.8070/75, tech res/offers 0.8090/00 (0.8101- 200 day MA) likely buy stops just above, and more offers 0.8135/45. Bids 0.8040/450.8020/25 and 0.8000 /10 (cloud top 0.8010, 55 day MA 0.8004) and tech support 0.7968 (100 day MA) USD/JPY: Bids 79.40/50, large bids 79.00/20 and large sell stops below through 78.95. Offers from 79.90/80.10 and above at 80.40/60, buy stops above both. EUR/JPY: Bids 103.00/10 likely sell stops just below ahead of bids 102.20/30 and tech support at the 200 day MA 102.09), sell stops through 102.00 and 101.80. Offers 103.30/50 (tenkan line 103.38) and 103.80/00 AUD/JPY: Bids 82.40/50, sell stops through 82.30 ahead of tech supp 82.20/25 (200 day MA 82.20), sell stops through 82. Offers 82.90/00, buy stops up through 83.10 ahead of offers 83.50/60 (Aug 21 high 83.57) AUD/USD: Strong offers 1.0390/00 (1.0395 daily cloud base) with buy stops through 1.0410. Further offers 1.0440/50 (61.8% of 14 Sept-8 Oct fall around 1.0444). Bids 1.0340/50 (200 day MA 1.0340), more 1.0325/35 and 1.0300/10 sell stops down through 1.0280 ahead of stronger bids 1.0230/50 and 1.0200/10 (barrier 1.0200) . EUR/AUD: Bids 1.2450/60 likely sell stops below ahead of tech support bids 1.2420/30 (Oct 2 lows) and 200 day MA at 1.2411. Offers 1.2500/10, 1.2540/50 and 1.2590/00 NZD/USD: Offers 0.8225/35 likely buy stops above ahead of tech res 0.8260/70 (Oct 5 high 0.8266). Bids 0.8200/10 (cloud top 0.8202), 0.8180/90 (38.2% retracement of 5-28 Sept rise around 0.8188) possible sell stops through 0.8160 (55 day MA 0.8163)  |
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Posted: 31 Oct 2012 12:11 AM PDT
Just been reading some info from a US investment bank and the findings of their month-end portfolio rebalancing model.
The model points to positive flows for the US dollar and Swedish Krona Points ot negative flows for euro and swissy and to a lesser extent kiwi. Bear in mind month end portfolio rebalancing flows are only one factor, but there you have them. UPDATE: Just been told UK clearer also calling for negative month end EUR/USD flows  |
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Posted: 31 Oct 2012 12:10 AM PDT
OSAKA, Japan (MNI) – The European Central Bank is well equipped to
withdraw large amounts of liquidity from the financial markets quickly if inflation risks arise but it has no plans to do so in the near future, ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said Wednesday. Coeure told a banking seminar here that the “very weak” European economy is expected to “recover gradually” in 2013 but confronted by signs of weaker growth in Asia and the U.S., “the Euro area can count only on its own forces.” Asked if he sees any inflationary or deflationary pressures emerging in the region, Coeure said, “There is no danger as risks to price stability are balanced … also because of monetary policy decisions taken by the ECB.” Europe is not exposed to deflationary risks in the short term, he added. The ECB’s mandate of ensuring price stability has not changed but its policy tools have evolved to counter unprecedented financial crises, the ECB policymaker said. “If there is any sign that risks to price stability materialize, then we are most likely to withdraw liquidity from our system, and that’s very easy,” he said. Asked what the central bank would do as a first step when it detects a sign of price instability, and what it would do if that did not work, he replied, “If we have to withdraw liquidity, we will come back to our usual way of tendering liquidity, which is variable rate allotments, instead of fixed full lot allotments.” But he quickly added: “We have no plan to do it in the near future but at any time we can do it.” “If there is a need to withdraw large quantities of liquidity in a short time span, we have an instrument that we’ve never used, that we said we could use, which will consist of issuing debt certificates. That’s something that lots of central banks do,” he said. Coeure said the ECB does not formulate monetary policy “dominated by banking system supervision.” European banking system adjustments in the wake of the sovereign debt crisis are only “half way” complete and money is not sufficiently flowing to businesses and households from lenders in countries like Spain, he said. He declined comment on developments in foreign exchange markets or how he evaluates Japan’s forex intervention policy, but simply said, “the euro is stable.” Asked about the notion that if the single currency system fails, Europe will fail, Coeure replied, “I agree.” tokyo@marketnews.com ** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-6860-4820 ** –email: msato@mni-news.com [TOPICS: M$A$$$,M$X$$$,M$$EC$]  |
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Posted: 31 Oct 2012 12:00 AM PDT
Compared to Reuter’s median forecasts of +0.3% m/m, -1.2% y/y.
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Posted: 31 Oct 2012 12:00 AM PDT
Real, seasonally adjusted retail sales:
September: +1.5% m/m, -3.1% y/y MNI survey median: +0.5% m/m, -1.2% y/y MNI survey range: +0.3% to +0.5% m/m August: +0.1% m/m, -1.1% y/y (revised from -1.2% y/y) FRANKFURT (MNI) – German retail sales rose three times faster in September than even the most optimistic analysts had projected, lifting turnover to the highest level in nearly a year, the Federal Statistical Office reported on Wednesday. After a modest recovery in August, sales gained an additional 1.5% on the month in real terms to their highest level since October, but were still 3.1% lower on the year. In nominal terms, turnover jumped 1.9% on the month to give an annual decline of -0.7%. Food, drink and tobacco sales, for which only annual figures are available, were down 3.4% , while non-food sales were 2.9% lower. Positive turnover in October lifted the retail PMI above 50 for the first time since July, though the reading was still below the average for the year to date. Expectations of steady employment and low inflation, as well as record-low borrowing costs, kept German households in a spending mood this month, a GfK Group survey showed. Recent labour market developments, however, could begin to weigh on spending-propensity in the near term. The ranks of the unemployed continued to trend upwards in October, while payroll jobs in September fell for the first time since the start of 2010, the Federal Labour Office reported on Tuesday. Looking ahead, a European Commission survey showed hiring expectations falling in all major sectors except retail in October, while consumers’ jobless fears fell only slightly from September’s 28-month high. Retailers already seem more pessimistic regarding the coming months. An Ifo institute survey showed their business expectations falling in October to their lowest level since February 2010, as order books continued to erode. – Frankfurt bureau: +49-69-720-142; email: twailoo@mni-news.com – [TOPICS: MTABLE,M$G$$$,M$X$$$,MAGDS$,M$XDS$,MT$$$$,MTABLE]  |
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Posted: 31 Oct 2012 12:00 AM PDT
GERMANY DATA: September real sa retail sales +1.5% m/m, unadj -3.1% y/y
– Germany September m/m retail sls above all fcsts (MNI median +0.5%) – Germany August m/m retail sales revised down to +0.1% (+0.3%) – Germany 3q sa retail sales -0.4% q/q, 2q +0.2%, 1q -0.7%) – Germany September sales 3mma (July-September:June-August) +0.1%, August -0.2% – Please see MNI Mainwire for further details  |
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Posted: 30 Oct 2012 11:39 PM PDT
David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital, famous for his ‘shorts’, reckons Iron ore could plummet to $100 next year and has subsequently shorted the commodity.
He was speaking at a ‘closed’ investment symposium in Dallas yesterday. Obviously feels Chinese industrial growth forecasts are over-estimated… That might excite a few AUD/USD bears of which there are plenty! More... Business Insider  |
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Posted: 30 Oct 2012 11:38 PM PDT
Financial bookies expect FTSE and CAC 40 to open down around -0.2%, DAX down around -0.1%.
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Posted: 30 Oct 2012 11:25 PM PDT
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Posted: 30 Oct 2012 11:18 PM PDT
Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!
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Posted: 30 Oct 2012 11:08 PM PDT
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Posted: 30 Oct 2012 11:06 PM PDT
No change there, we really need something to happen but i have a feeling it’ll all be about NY opening today.
Month end, won’t help but there’s got to be some whippy action ahead in the equity markets . There’s a slew of European data out this morning and the Greece discussion by european FinMins in a conference call today will be closely monitored, so maybe, just maybe, we’ll start to see some movement again… EUR/USD currently sits just under 1.2960 with offers up at 1.2980/00, bids in the 1.2920/30 zone with sell stops just below, ahead of more bids from sovereigns reported sub 1.2900.  |
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Posted: 30 Oct 2012 10:57 PM PDT
For the 1000 NY/1400 GMT cut:
EUR/USD: 1.2870, 1.2875, 1.2900, 1.2910, 1.2940, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3050 GBP/USD: 1.6100, EUR/GBP: 0.8040, 0.8100, 0.8150 USD/JPY: 79.25, 79.50, 79.60, 79.70, 79.75, 80.00 AUD/USD: 1.0280, 1.0340, 1.0350 AUD/JPY: 81.25 AUD/NZD: 1.2600 EUR/AUD: 1.2525  |
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