Dollar Plummets after NFP, EUR/CHF Jumps on SNB Rumor


Dollar Plummets after NFP, EUR/CHF Jumps on SNB Rumor


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Dollar Plummets after NFP, EUR/CHF Jumps on SNB Rumor

Dollar is sharply lower in early US session, in particular against the Japanese yen, after release of weaker than expected NFP number. The data showed US job market grew 96k in August, comparing to expectation of 127k. Prior month's figure was also revised down from 163k to 141K. Unemployment rate, though, improved to 8.1%, thanks to the fact that 368k of Americans left the labor market. On the other hand, the Canadian dollar was boosted by stronger than expected job market data which showed 34.3k growth in August comparing to expectation of 11k. Unemployment rate in Canada was unchanged at 7.3% as expected.
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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9503; (P) 0.9550; (R1) 0.9582; More...
USD/CHF's fall resumed by taking out 0.9502 and reaches as ow as 0.9473 so far in early US session. Intraday bias is back on the downside and further decline should be seen to 0.9420 key support level next. Break will have further bearish implications and would pave the way to 0.9 psychological level and below. On the upside, break of 0.9607 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even in case of recovery.
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Special Reports

ECB Unveils More Details about Outright Monetary Transactions

ECB leaves main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.75%, compared with our expectation of a rate cut of -25 bps. Policymakers believed that this is not an appropriate time to lower interests as economic weakness had been anticipated. Meanwhile, President Draghi stated at the press conference that officials have basically agreed on unlimited bond purchase program. Despite objected by a member, the program is expected to be able to help "address severe distortions in government bond markets which originate from, in particular, unfounded fears on the part of investors of the reversibility of the euro". According to Draghi, purchases would be fully sterilized, suggesting that the program would not trigger inflation pressure. The ECB also affirmed that purchases would not have seniority.
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Economic Indicators Update
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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Jul -556M -300M 9M
05:00 JPY Leading Index Jul P 91.8 91.6 93.2
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Aug 2.90% 2.90% 2.90%
06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Jul 16.1B 15.4B 16.2B 16.3B
07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves Aug 418.4B 406.5B 408.6B
08:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Jul 2.90% 1.50% -2.50% -2.40%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Jul -0.80% -2.80% -4.30% -3.90%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Jul 3.20% 1.70% -2.90%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jul -0.50% -2.40% -4.30%
08:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Aug 2.00% 1.70% 1.30% 0.40%
08:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Aug 1.40% 1.50% -2.40%
08:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Aug 0.50% 0.20% 0.00% 0.10%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Aug 2.20% 1.90% 1.70% 1.80%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M Aug 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% -0.10%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Aug 1.20% 1.20% 1.30% 1.20%
10:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Jul 1.30% 0.00% -0.90% -0.40%
12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Aug 96K 127K 163K 141K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Aug 8.10% 8.30% 8.30%
12:30 CAD Labor Productivity Q/Q Q2 -0.40% 0.10%
12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Aug 34.3K 11.0K -30.4K
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Aug 7.30% 7.30% 7.30%
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Jul -2.30% -1.50% -2.50%
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Aug 64.5 62.8
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Aug -0.20%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency rallied today and the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. job data gave extra energy to the pair, barriers at 1.2700 and 1.2750 were cleared, some offers at 1.2760-70 (related to 50% retracement of 1.3487-1.2042) were also filled, however, some selling interests for profit taking ahead of weekend are tipped further out at 1.2790-00 with mixtures of offers and stops located at 1.2810-20 and 1.2850. On the downside, bids from various parties are located at 1.2700-10 and also at 1.2670 with combination of bids and stops located at 1.2640-50 but sizeable stops only emerging below 1.2620 and 1.2600.
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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2695

As euro’s intra-day rise has gathered momentum after the release of soft U.S. job data, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress for a stronger retracement of early downtrend and gain to 1.2800-10, then 1.2835-40 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.2890-95 (1.618 times projection of 1.2042-1.2444 measuring from 1.2242) and reckon 1.2950 would hold from here.
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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
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Fundamental Highlights
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