Aussie Tumbles on Risk Aversion and RBA, Kiwi Follows


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Aussie Tumbles on Risk Aversion and RBA, Kiwi Follows

Aussie tumbles sharply in Asian session today on risk aversion as Asian equities extend this week's slide on China growth concern. Meanwhile, the aussie is also additionally pressured as RBA left rates unchanged and kept the door open for more rate cuts. AUD/USD is back pressing 1.0597 support looks set to take it out today to confirm near term reversal. NZD/USD is even weaker on S&P comments. Markets are pretty steady elsewhere thought, with dollar staying in tight range against European majors. The recovery of Euro, Sterling and Swissy against dollar yesterday was rather weak. In particular, EUR/USD is vulnerable to another selloff as markets's attention remains closely on Greece PSI situation. Yen continues to consolidate recent selloffs.
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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0636; (P) 1.0690; (R1) 1.0723; More
AUD/USD drops sharply to as low as 1.0603 so far today and focus is on 1.0597 support. Break there will indicate that a short term top is at least formed at 1.0852. More importantly, this will suggest that whole rally from 0.9663 has finished and will bring deeper decline back to 1.0377 resistance turned support. Break there will indicate that another falling leg inside the consolidation pattern from 1.1079 has started and should target 0.9663 support and below. On the upside, above 1.0690 minor resistance will temporarily ease downside risk and turn bias neutral first.
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Economic Indicators Update




GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:30 AUD Current Account Balance (AUD) Q4 -8.4B -7.9B -5.6B -5.8B
3:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 4.25% 4.25% 4.25%
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 P
-0.30% -0.30%
15:00 CAD Ivey PMI Feb
62 64.1
Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Despite rebounding after falling to yesterday's low of 1.3160, the single currency has retreated this morning in tandem with aussie (RBA left rates unchanged), however, bids from Asian names are reported at 1.3160-70 with stops building up below option barrier at 1.3150 and further out at 1.3100. On the upside, offers in good size are lined up at 1.3240-50 and also 1.3280 with some stops placed above 1.3300, followed by combination of offers and stops locating at 1.3340-50.
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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3285

Although the single currency has retreated after meeting resistance around the Ichimoku cloud bottom, as long as yesterday’s low at 1.3160 holds, further consolidation would take place and another corrective bounce to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.3270) is likely, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.3282-85 (previous support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3486-1.3160), bring another decline.
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9050

Despite yesterday’s rise to 0.9162, the subsequent retreat formed a small shooting star on the hourly chart and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for retracement to 0.9100 and possibly the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.9086), however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 0.9050 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8937-0.9162) and bring another rise later.
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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights


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