Yen Soared on Risk Aversion ahead of Crimean Referendum


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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Yen Soared on Risk Aversion ahead of Crimean Referendum

Market sentiments tumbled last week on growing worries over the situation in Crimea, which is going to have a referendum on whether to rejoin Russia this Sunday. There were reports that Russian troops massed for excise on the boarder of eastern Ukraine. The meeting between US Secretary of State Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov yielded no result. Investors are seeing the current tension in Crimea as the biggest geopolitical threat since the end of the Cold War. And it's so far uncertain on what Russia would do after Crimean referendum. The UN Security Council will meet today to vote on a US proposed resolution but that would likely be vetoed by Russia. US and EU could apply Iran style sanctions against Russia if it doesn't back down from annexing Crimea. In short, there are a lot of uncertainties surrounding the issue and financial markets would likely stay in roller-coaster ride in the early part of this week.
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USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY's sharp decline last week suggests that the corrective pattern from 100.75 has completed at 103.75 already. In other words, the fall from 105.41 is possibly resuming. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 100.75. Break will target 100% projection of 105.41 to 100.75 from 103.75 at 99.09. Also, decisive break of 100.61 key support will have larger bearish implications. On the upside, above 101.87 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first.
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