Sterling Weakened on Weale Comments, Yen Loss Limited


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Sterling Weakened on Weale Comments, Yen Loss Limited

Markets are relatively steady today. While yen dived initially on reaction to G20, there was no follow through selling. USD/JPY is still limited below last week's high of 94.45. And indeed, dollar is seen mildly softer into early US session. Sterling continues to be the weakest European majors and dipped to seven month low against dollar as weighed down by a BoE official. Euro on the other hand, is mildly firmer together with Aussie and Canadian dollar. Euro is supported by ECB Nowotny's comments on exchange rates.
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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 92.50; (P) 93.16; (R1) 94.11; More..
At this point, USD/JPY is still limited below 94.45 and intraday bias remains neutral with focus on this resistance. Break will confirm resumption of recent rally from 77.13 and should target 94.98 medium term level first. Sustained break there will pave the way to the important psychological level at 100. In any case, consolidation fro 94.45 should be relatively brief as long as 92.16 minor support holds and up trend should resume soon. Though, below 92.16 will indicate near term reversal and would bring deeper pull back to 90.24 support and below to extend the correction.
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Economic Indicators Update



GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices M/M Feb 2.80% 0.20%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Dec 13.9B 15.3B 14.8B 15.9B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound slipped again in London morning and option barrier at 1.5450 together with stops below there were cleared, however, indicated demand from Middle East names emerged and lifted cable from 1.5438. At the moment, offers are still seen at 1.5505-10 and also at 1.5530 as well as 1.5550 (large) with stops building up above 1.5550 and 1.5575-80 but fresh offers are expected around 1.5600 and 1.5640-50. On the downside, bids from same names are reported at 1.5435-30 and also at 1.5410-20 with more stops placed below 1.5400.
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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3450

Despite last week’s anticipated resumption of recent decline, as the single currency rebounded after falling marginally to 1.3307 on Friday, suggesting consolidation above this level would take place and another corrective bounce to Friday’s high of 1.3394 cannot be ruled out, however, the upper Kumo (now at 1.3415) should limit upside and renewed selling interests should emerge around 1.3450, bring another decline later.
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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 124.00

Despite last week’s late fall to 122.90, the subsequent rebound from there suggests low is possibly formed there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for further gain to 125.95-00, above there would extend credence to this view and extend rise to 126.55-60 but a daily close above there is needed to retain bullishness and suggest the correction from 127.71 has possibly ended at 122.90. Looking ahead, only breach of resistance at 126.94 (last week’s high) would confirm this view
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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights


ECB President Draghi up later at 14.30 gmt


ECB President Draghi up later at 14.30 gmt

Link to ForexLive

Posted: 18 Feb 2013 01:58 AM PST
I’m hearing that the SNB could be unloading a few of their many Euros again up there/here
Posted: 18 Feb 2013 01:52 AM PST
GBPUSD having a decent recovery helped by some decent buying interest from Middle East names
Talk of good offers between 1.5500-10
I did say there was good two-way interest !
Posted: 18 Feb 2013 01:35 AM PST
Talk of giant panda driving this pair forcing Eur higher across the board
125.91 high posted from 125.46
Strong offers reported 125.90-00
Posted: 18 Feb 2013 01:30 AM PST
EURUSD up to 1.3375 after the buying down at 1.3320-5 from sovereign names that we reported
Asian sovereign  buying again driving this higher we hear
Posted: 18 Feb 2013 01:22 AM PST
You can follow  proceedings  here
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/ep-live/en/committees/video?event=20130218-1530-COMMITTEE-ECON
also a few others speaking before then.. check out my earlier post for details..
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/02/18/come-tell-it-one-and-all-whos-talking-today/
Posted: 18 Feb 2013 01:02 AM PST
  • EZ December Current  nsa account balance   for November revised up  20.8 from 19.8 in November
  • sa December balance + eu 13.7 b versus +13 bio ( revised up from 12.6 b  )
Add: The data wasn’t expected to have much impact and so its proved
EURUSD a tad lower at 1.3334



Posted: 18 Feb 2013 12:57 AM PST
Cable trading back at 1.5460 after posting 7 month lows at 1.5438.
Good two-way business still.
Posted: 18 Feb 2013 12:49 AM PST
Coming up shortly
Plus EZ net investment flows
Last time  Eur 19.8 b and 26.2 b respectively
Posted: 18 Feb 2013 12:33 AM PST
Talk of sovereign names on the bid just now in the 1.3320-25 buying order area I mentioned earlier.
Posted: 18 Feb 2013 12:30 AM PST
Hearing talk of more bids on cable at 1.5420 and another barrier option interest at 1.5400.
Seems like bids and barriers have just been a magnet so far but we’ve come a decent way already this morning.
Posted: 18 Feb 2013 12:22 AM PST
Well, I did say it looked a little heavy on that last rally……..
Posted: 18 Feb 2013 12:10 AM PST
Seems like those bids I mentioned between 1.5450-60 are giving a little support but it still feels heavy to me, witnessing that rally above 1.5480 just now.
I will resist the temptation to have a mini-poll of which we will see first, 1.5440 or 1.5490, but it’s a close call huh ?
Posted: 17 Feb 2013 11:47 PM PST
Cable has seen some early sellers testing previous recent lows.
Bids reported at 1.5460 and then more ahead of reported barrier option interest at 1.5450.
Posted: 17 Feb 2013 11:28 PM PST
Early buyers of USDJPY
Currently 94.09 having briefly dipped below 93.90.
Talk of good selling interest around 94.20 still.
Posted: 17 Feb 2013 11:14 PM PST
Ok, as Europe starts to open up what do our wonderful ForexLive readers and traders think ?
Post your thoughts/trade ideas here.
Posted: 17 Feb 2013 10:46 PM PST
Hearing the following orders in the immediate vicinity on this pair :
  • Offers at 1.3365-80, with some stop loss buying above if breached
  • Bids 1.3320-25 with stop loss selling below if breached
Will bring more to you as I hear them.

Posted: 17 Feb 2013 10:39 PM PST
And following on from my last post here’s a few of the EU notables uttering forth today…
GMT
  • 09.00 -ECB’s Nowotny speaks in Vienna
  • 10.00- Bundesnbank member Dombret speaks in Hamburg
  • 11.00- Bundesbank scheduled to release its latest monthly report
  • 14.30- ECB President Draghi appears before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee
  • 16.30- German Chancellor Merkel speaks at the Chamber of Industry & Commerce Rheinhessen in Mainz.
Posted: 17 Feb 2013 10:31 PM PST
Given the fun and games of last week, we begin this one with little in the way of data out today, and the US on holiday for President’s Day.
So we might reasonably see a quieter session,  except that experience tells us always to expect the unexpected with various EU notables speaking today including Mr Draghi, and I’m sure we’ll have some post-G20 rhetoric thrown in at some point.
Plenty going on out there still to keep us on our toes………
Posted: 17 Feb 2013 10:00 PM PST
Hearing the following:
  • Bids 1.0265-70
  • Larger bids at 1.0250, then 1.0235-40
  • Offers 1.0320, 1.0350
  • Larger offers @ 1.0400, 1.0415-20, 1.0450
Posted: 17 Feb 2013 09:45 PM PST
  • EURUSD  1.3000,1.3375,1.3400, 1.3500
  • GBPUSD  1.5600, 1.5710, 1.5725
  • USDJPY  91.50, 92.00, 92.50-60-90, 93.25, 94.00
  • AUDUSD  1.0285, 1.0300, 1.0385
  • EURCHF  1.2320