Spain ‘will need extra bail-out’

Spain ‘will need extra bail-out’

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• SimEurope
• Two reasons markets’ focus will remain on Spain next week – Credit Agricole
• Spain ‘will need extra bail-out’
• ECB and Fed actions not game changers, just deja vu of failed policies – BofA Merrill
• ECB in ‘panic’ says former chief economist Juergen Stark
• Gold seen luring wealthy as central bankers expand stimulus
• US Senate Passes FY’13 Stop-Gap Spending Bill, Sending To Obama
• THE NEXT PANIC!!!!
• Presidential race changes, but swing states stay the same
• Four reasons why Romney might still win
• The drugs don’t work: a modern medical scandal
• Upcoming Italian electoral campaign: The air pocket to hit euro in Q1 2013 – JP Morgan

SimEurope Posted: 23 Sep 2012 01:55 AM PDT ‘Some fantasies for the future of Europe may cause more problems than they solve’

Two reasons markets’ focus will remain on Spain next week – Credit Agricole Posted: 23 Sep 2012 01:50 AM PDT Oh goody

Spain ‘will need extra bail-out’ Posted: 22 Sep 2012 03:08 PM PDT ‘A bank-by-bank test of financial stability due on Friday is expected to conclude that Spains’ lenders are dangerously over-burdened with toxic debts and need to be recapitalised, restructured or shut down’

ECB and Fed actions not game changers, just deja vu of failed policies – BofA Merrill Posted: 22 Sep 2012 12:17 PM PDT Oh dear Deja vu all over again then……..

ECB in ‘panic’ says former chief economist Juergen Stark Posted: 22 Sep 2012 11:34 AM PDT Juergen being Juergen

Gold seen luring wealthy as central bankers expand stimulus Posted: 22 Sep 2012 10:47 AM PDT Inflation hedge innit

US Senate Passes FY’13 Stop-Gap Spending Bill, Sending To Obama Posted: 22 Sep 2012 08:20 AM PDT –Senate Approves Stop-Gap Spending Bill on 62 to 30 Vote –President Obama Set To Sign Stop-Gap Spending Bill –Congress Abandons DC For Campaign Trail By John Shaw WASHINGTON (MNI) – The Senate approved early Saturday morning the 2013 fiscal year stop-gap spending bill that will fund the federal government for six months. After a week of partisan bickering, the Senate approved the bill on a 62 to 30 vote. The House approved the stop-gap spending bill last week on a 329 to 91 vote. Now that the measure has cleared the Senate, it will go to President Obama for his signature. Passage of the stop-gap bill ensures the government will be funded until next spring. The FY’13 stop-gap spending bill funds the government through March 27, 2013. The 2013 fiscal year begins Oct. 1 and so far Congress has passed none of the 12 spending bills for the coming fiscal year The House concluded its pre-election agenda on Friday and the Senate leaves town Saturday. Both chambers are expected to reconvene around Nov. 13, the week after the Nov. 6 elections. ** MNI Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 ** [TOPICS: M$U$$$,MFU$$$,MCU$$$]

THE NEXT PANIC!!!! Posted: 22 Sep 2012 05:13 AM PDT ‘Europe’s crisis will be followed by a more devastating one, likely beginning in Japan’ Oh dear

Presidential race changes, but swing states stay the same Posted: 22 Sep 2012 04:40 AM PDT Nat Silver’s political calculus in The New York Times.

Four reasons why Romney might still win Posted: 22 Sep 2012 04:18 AM PDT My bookie remains unconvinced, indeed they think the Republican candidate is toast.  They’ve moved the price on a Romney victory out to 3/1 from the previous 11/4.  Obama is a strong 1/4 odds on favourite.

The drugs don’t work: a modern medical scandal Posted: 22 Sep 2012 03:50 AM PDT That is some scary shit!!

Upcoming Italian electoral campaign: The air pocket to hit euro in Q1 2013 – JP Morgan Posted: 22 Sep 2012 03:41 AM PDT The Italian elections, due April 2013, do pose event risk for the euro going forward.  Probably not next week though Something to bear in mind.  Tuck it away in the back of the old brainbox

 

BOJ Speeds Up Easing, Expands Asset Purchases After ECB And FED

Action Insight Weekly Report	Markets Snapshot
Markets Range Bound Last Week But Consolidations May Not Last Long Financial markets were basically engaged in consolidation last week as the boost from ECB's OMT and Fed's QE3 faded. Much volatility was seen in the Japanese yen though as BoJ followed and expanded its stimulus program. Sterling was the relatively stronger one as it attempted to break through 1.63 key resistance level against dollar but failed. In stocks, DOW and FTSE traded in tight range below prior week's high even though DAX managed to break through on Friday. The CRB commodity index, however, retreated sharply after from prior week's high of 321.36 to close at 308.98 but that provided not much support to the greenback. After all, some more consolidations would likely be seen this week but that shouldn't last long. We'd anticipate Euro's rally to resume soon together with risk markets. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook USD/CHF continued to consolidate above 0.9238 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more sideway trading. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited by 0.9502 support turned resistance, (38.2% retracement of 0.9971 to 0.9238 at 0.9518). As noted before, while some more consolidative trading could be seen above 0.9238, a downside breakout is anticipated eventually. Below 0.9238 should send USD/CHF through 0.9 psychological level to 0.8930 key support next. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Special Reports
BOJ Speeds Up Easing, Expands Asset Purchases After ECB And FED The BOJ accelerated the pace of monetary easing by doubling the size of asset purchases, in addition to leaving the uncollateralized overnight call rate at around 0 to 0.1%. Slowdown in global economic growth and recent tensions between China and Japan over territorial dispute are expected to delay Japan’s recovery as exports growth would be affected. According to the central bank, the move is expected to 'help ensure that Japan's economy resumes a sustainable growth path with price stability'. The move came in earlier than market expectations, sending Japanese yen lower, and Nikkei stock index and cash bonds higher. Read more...
Suggested Readings
The Week in Review and Outlook Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary The Weekly Bottom Line Will Spain Seek a Bailout? Weekly Focus: Focus Returns to Spain

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-10-12

Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Markets Consolidate in Quiet Trading Markets are generally steady today with Asian equities ended nearly flat while European stocks treaded water. US futures point to slightly lower opening but loss should be very limited. Spanish 10 year yield rose slightly back to 5.73% at the time of writing as markets are awaiting Spain to request to activate ECB's OMT later. In the currency markets, Euro consolidates last week's sharp rally against other major currencies with EUR/USD hovering below 1.28 and EUR/JPY gyrating around 100. While most pairs are quiet, mild weakness in seen in sterling, probably due to reverse safe haven flow back to Euro. On the data front, Eurozone Sentix investor confidence unexpectedly improved to -23.2 in September. Japan GDP was revised down to 0.2% qoq in Q2 while GDP deflator was revised higher to -0.9% yoy. Current account surplus narrowed to JPY 0.34T. Household confidence improved slightly to 40.5 in August. Australian home loans dropped -1.0% in July. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5940; (P) 1.5987; (R1) 1.6052; More... A temporary top should be in place at 1.6033 in GBP/USD and intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Deeper retreat could be seen back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.5889). But downside should be contained well above 1.5753 support and bring rally resumption. Whole rebound from 1.5260 is still expected to continue and above 1.6033 will target upper trend line resistance (now at 1.6131) Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

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MT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q2 F 0.20% 0.30% 0.30% 23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q2 F -0.90% -1.10% -1.10% 23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Jul 0.34T 0.39T 0.77T 1:30 AUD Home Loans Jul -1.00% 0.00% 1.30% 1.00% 5:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Household Aug 40.5 39.4 39.7 6:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Aug 43.6 43.4 44.2 8:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Sep -23.2 -30.5 -30.3
Orders and Options Watch
US Session: Orders and Options Watch GBP: The British pound continued to move lower after retreating from 1.6034 (Friday's high) and bids at 1.5980-90 were filled, however, buying interests from Middle East names are still noted at 1.5940-50 with mixture of bids and stops located further out at 1.5920-30, followed by bigger stops below 1.5880. On the upside, offers from UK clearer are tipped at 1.6000 and selling interests from option players are expected at 1.6025-35 with some buy stop orders above there but more sell orders from same parties are reported at 1.6050 with more stops placed above 1.6055-60. Full Report Here...
Forex Trade Ideas
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5940 Despite Friday’s rally to 1.6034, as cable has retreated after faltering below this level today, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and correction towards 1.5940-44 (previous resistance and the Ichimoku cloud top) cannot be ruled out but renewed buying interests should emerge there, bring another rise. Above said resistance at 1.6034 would extend upmove to 1.6050-60, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.6090-00 and reckon previous resistance at 1.6124 would hold Full Report Here... Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 99.20 Euro’s rally after breaking indicated resistance at 99.19 (now turned support) confirms the upmove from recent low of 94.12 has resumed and gain to 100.50-55 and possibly 100.85-90 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 101.20-30 and resistance at 101.40-50 should hold from here, risk from there is seen for a strong retreat later. Full Report Here... Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): 1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530 Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights EUR and FED Event Risk Dominates A Week of Event Risk Both Sides of the Atlantic ECB And The Fed Lend Markets A Hand Markets In The Green As US Data Disappoint Technical Highlights GBP/JPY to Focus on 124.50, Rising Trendline EUR/USD Holding Near 1.28, Challenged by the 2012 Declining Trendline Tracking The EUR/USD, GBP/USD Pairs GBPJPY - Short Term Outlook Still Remains To The Upside