Commodity Currencies Firm on Risk Appetite ahead of Holiday


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Commodity Currencies Firm on Risk Appetite ahead of Holiday

Markets are pretty steady in thin holiday trading today. Euro is holding on to 1.3 against dollar despite making new record low against Aussie. Meanwhile, commodity currencies are generally higher, as lifted by risk appetite following positive employment data from US yesterday. Rebound in oil prices, which touches 100 again, is providing some additional support to the Canadian dollar. Recent actions in DOW suggests that a new high above 12284.31 might be seen next week just before the year closes and that could lead commodity currencies further higher.
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Featured Technical Report

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2835; (P) 1.2897; (R1) 1.2940; More.
EUR/AUD's decline continues today and dips to as low as 1.2837 so far. Near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3150 resistance holds. Next short term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.3808 to 1.2962 from 1.3150 at 1.2627. Though, break of 1.3150 will indicate short term bottoming and bring rebound.
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Economic Indicators Update
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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
09:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Oct
0.30% 0.60%
09:30 GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase Nov
36.3K 35.3K
13:30 CAD GDP M/M Oct

0.20%
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Nov
2.20% -0.70%
13:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Nov
0.40% 0.70%
13:30 USD Personal Income Nov
0.30% 0.40%
13:30 USD Personal Spending Nov
0.30% 0.10%
13:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Nov
2.70% 2.70%
13:30 USD PCE Core M/M Nov
0.10% 0.10%
13:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Nov
1.70% 1.70%
15:00 USD New Home Sales Nov
313K 307K
Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency rebounded on the back of aussie's rise and improved risk appetite in very thin trading condition (due to Japan's holiday), however, offers are still noted from 1.3080 up to 1.3100 and better size selling interest from Asian CBs remains at 1.3120-30, then 1.3150-60. On the downside, some defensive bids (for protection of large stops below 1.3000) are reported from 1.3040 down to 1.3010 and more stops are tipped below 1.2980.
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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5590

As cable has remained confined within near term established range, suggesting further consolidation would be seen and another corrective fall to 1.5638 support, then the lower Kumo (now at 1.5638) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.5590-00 and bring another rise later. A sustained breach of said minor resistance at 1.5729 would bring a test of indicated strong resistance at 1.5775-80
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 77.30

Despite intra-day brief rise to 78.23, lack of follow through buying on break of yesterday’s high of 78.20 and current retreat after faltering below indicated resistance at 78.29 suggests consolidation below this level would take place and retracement to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 77.99) and then lower Kumo (now at 77.91) would be seen, however, downside should be limited to support at 77.62 and renewed buying interest should emerge around 77.30, bring another rise later.
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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights

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Japan Govt To Sell Y149.7 Trln Of Bonds In Market in FY 2012



Link to ForexLive
Posted:
TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s Ministry of Finance said Saturday that it plans to sell Y149.7 trillion worth of government bonds in the market in the fiscal year beginning April 1, 2012, higher than the Y144.9 trillion initially slated for the current fiscal year. The so-called calendar base debt sales, or the amount of government bonds [...]
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TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s government on Saturday said it has drafted a budget for fiscal 2012 totalling Y90.334 trillion, slightly smaller than Y92.412 trillion for the initial fiscal 2011 budget. According to the plan, general-account spending, excluding debt-servicing costs, will total Y68.390 trillion, down slightly from Y70.863 trillion for this fiscal year. New government bond [...]
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WASHINGTON (MNI) – The IRS Friday told high-income taxpayers they will owe 2% more on wages in excess of $18,350 — an annual rate of $80,100 –earned during the two months the payroll tax cut has been extended: Payroll Tax Cut Temporarily Extended into 2012 IR-2011-124, Dec. 23, 2011 Nearly 160 million workers will benefit [...]
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WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following was issed by the Federal Reserve Friday afternoon: Agencies Extend Comment Period on Volcker Rule Proposal Four federal agencies on Friday extended until February 13, 2012, the comment period on a proposal to implement the so-called Volcker Rule of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. The Dodd-Frank [...]
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US DATA: Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean PCE inflation was +1.2% annualized in Nov. See http://www.dallasfed.org/data/pce/index.html
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That’s about all the pre-Christmas excitement I can stand! Wishing all a very Merry Christmas. See you back here on Tuesday.
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–Data Requirements for Repos, Securities Lending, Need Expansion NEW YORK (MNI) – The following two executive summaries pertain to reports posted Friday on the New York Federal Reserve Bank’s Web page www.newyorkfed.org: The Microstructure of the TIPS Market Authors: Michael J. Fleming and Neel Krishnan The potential advantages from the introduction of Treasury inflation-protected securities [...]
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–House, Senate Pass Bill By Unanimous Consent Motions –President Obama Expected To Sign Payroll Tax Cut Extension Bill Soon –House, Senate Talks On Year-Long Plan Set To Begin In January By John Shaw WASHINGTON (MNI) – Weeks of partisan acrimony ended Friday, when the House and Senate passed by unanimous consent a bill that would [...]
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By Denny Gulino WASHINGTON (MNI) – The government’s equivalent of an annual 10-K report, its 2011 Financial Report of the United States Government, Friday showed dramatic year-to-year improvement for a net debtor nation struggling to finance itself over the long-term. Impossible entitlement commitments, the lowest revenues as a percent of GDP since the 1950s and [...]
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Analyzing USD/JPY is like watch paint dry, but without the excitement. But occasionally you spot something unusual. I’ve recently noticed that the 100-day moving average is starting to tick high for the first time since mid-2010. It’s a subtle thing, but coming off all-time lows earlier this year, perhaps Mr. Market is sending us a [...]
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Obama is slipping on the presidential flip-flops, getting ready to sign the payroll tax bill and then chopper out to Andrews Air Force Base so he can jump on Air Force One and fly off to Hawaii for vacation.
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US DATA: Nov New Home Sales +1.6% to 315k about in-line with the MNI median estimate of 313k. Oct new home sales were revised up to 310k (prev 307k) and Sep was also revised up to 306k (prev 303k). The months supply of new homes fell 1.3% to 158k or a six months supply, the [...]
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315,000 unit annual rate
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FRANKFURT (MNI) – The ECB Friday said that based on its liquidity forecast Friday, the benchmark allotment amounted to -E748.0 billion. At the ECB’s first three-year LTRO earlier this week, the central bank allotted a record E489.191 billion to over 500 banks, in addition to an allotment of E169.024 billion in its weekly 7-day MRO. [...]
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We’re gonna wrap things up in about 2 yours for the weekend. We’ll resume regular updates on Tuesday, though London is closed for Boxing Day. We’ll try and have a few updates over the weekend as well.
Posted:
FRANKFURT (MNI) – The ECB Friday forecast a net drain of E748.0 billion at Tuesday’s weekly 7-day main refinancing operation. It said that based on its liquidity forecast Friday, the benchmark allotment amounted to -E748.0 billion. At the ECB’s first three-year LTRO earlier this week, the central bank allotted a record E489.191 billion to over [...]
Posted:
The ECB bought only EUR 19 mln in government bonds this week after buying over EUR 3 bln last week. Italian bonds are on the slide today with the yield on 10s moving back above 7%, now at 7.06%, helpiong weigh on EUR/USD. Critical comments from S&P haven’t helped. EUR/USD support is seen in the [...]
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FRANKFURT (MNI) – The European Central Bank announced on Friday that it expected to have settled E19 million in bond buys in the week ending December 23, its lowest level since early August. The central bank had settled E3.361 billion in the week ending December 16 and E635 million in the week before that. The [...]
Posted:
US DATA: 2011 Financial Report of the U.S. Govt (yr ended Sept 30, 2011) has no surprises since it summarizes daily/monthly Tsy statements in consolidated balance sheet form. Shows interest costs and entitlement spending are rising, but Treasury says the YOY budget picture is dramatically better. Tsy reports total cash at $76.9b on Sept 30, [...]
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