Action Insight Daily Report 3-1-11

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: EUR/USD Capped ahead of Bernanke, AUD/USD Lower after RBA

Markets are mixed as an extremely busy day starts. EUR/USD edged higher to 1.3854 yesterday but was capped by 1.3860 near term resistance. Expectation that Fed will lag other major central banks in policy stimulus removal is one of the major factors that drove the greenback lower recently. Now that crude oil is stabilizing below 100 level, main focus will be on Bernanke's semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee today. The Fed chairman is expected to be pressed hard on questions on inflation and the impact of Fed's on-going quantitative easing strategy. But Bernanke, while would acknowledge improvements in growth outlook, will likely remain cautious and hints it's premature to exit any accommodative measures for the time being. Before that, ISM manufacturing index will be a main focus too and is expected to be steady at 60.5 in February.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0139; (P) 1.0166; (R1) 1.0211; More

AUD/USD edged higher to 1.0200 but failed to sustain gain and retreats again. Nevertheless, another rise remains mildly in favor with 1.0119 minor support intact. As noted before, while upside momentum is clearly seen diminishing with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, AUD/USD is still drawing strong support from 55 days EMA. Recent up trend should still continue further. Break of 1.0199 again will target another high above 1.0254. On the downside, below 1.0119 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. However, break of 0.9943 support is needed to be the first signal of topping. Otherwise, we won't turn bearish yet.

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RBA On Hold, Sees Only Moderate Inflationary Pressure

As widely expected, the RBA kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% as inflation remained contained. The accompanying statement delivered a neutral tone as policymakers see balanced risks to growth and inflation outlook. For the first time in the current tightening cycle, the RBA stated that the current stance of monetary policy is 'mildly restrictive'. Yet it remained 'appropriate in view of the general macroeconomic outlook'.

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BoC to Leave Policy Rate Unchanged

The Bank of Canada will likely leave the overnight rate unchanged at 1%. Policymakers will note that domestic economic growth has softened recently though the global outlook has shown more sustainability. The tone in the policy statement will remain dovish, indicating presence of some event risks: strength in Canadian dollar since the last meeting, renewed sovereign concerns in the European periphery and civil unrests in the Middle East and North Africa.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Jan -1.00% -1.30% -3.30%
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Jan 4.90% 4.90% 4.90%
00:30 AUD Current Account (AUD) Q4 -7.3B -6.9B -7.8B -6.5B
00:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Jan 0.40% 0.30% 0.20%
01:00 CNY PMI Manufacturing Feb 52.2 52.1 52.9
01:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Jan 0.20% 0.30% -0.40% 0.10%
02:30 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI Feb 51.7 -- 54.5
03:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 4.75% 4.75% 4.75%
06:45 CHF GDP Q/Q Q4 0.50% 0.70%
06:45 CHF GDP Y/Y Q4 2.70% 3.00%
08:30 CHF SVME PMI Feb 60.5 60.5
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Feb -13K -13K
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Feb 7.40% 7.40%
08:55 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Feb F 62.6 62.6
09:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Feb F 59 59
09:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing Feb F 61.5 62
09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Jan -- -1.00%
09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Jan -- -2.00%
09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Jan 42.5K 42.6K
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Feb 2.40% 2.40%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jan 10.00% 10.00%
14:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
15:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Jan -0.40% -2.50%
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Feb 60.5 60.8
15:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Feb 81.5 81.5
15:00 USD Bernanke Testimony
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy again at 1.6200

Yesterday's anticipated rally and the breach of resistance at 1.6275-79 signals recent upmove has resumed and a retest of previous chart resistance at 1.6300 would be seen, however, break there is needed to retain bullishness and extend further gain towards 1.6350 but reckon 1.6390/00 would hold from here, bring minor correction later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 81.90

Although the greenback re-visited last week's low at 81.62 yesterday, failure to penetrate this support and the subsequent rebound suggest a temporary low has possibly formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement to 82.52-59 (previous support and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 83.56-81.62) and possibly towards 82.80/85 before prospect of another decline later this week.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-28-11

ActionForex.com

Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Selloff Resumes, CAD Strong on GDP

Dollar's recovery was brief and selloff resumed today, taking the dollar index below recent support of 76.88. US economic data released so far are largely ignored by the the market even though we saw sharp jump in personal income by 1.0% in January. Spending growth was disappointing by 0.2% only. Core PCE was unchanged at 0.8% yoy while PCE deflation was also unchanged at 1.2% yoy. Canadian dollar, on the other hand, extends recent rise after strong GDP growth of 0.5% mom in December.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9755; (P) 0.9793; (R1) 0.9814; More.

USD/CAD drops further to as low as 0.9745 so far in early US session and intraday bias remains on the downside, Current decline is expected to continue towards 0.9709 support next. As noted before, we're still seeing bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and thus, we're anticipating strong support from 0.9709 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9788 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside and turn focus back to 0.9957 resistance. However, note that sustained break of 0.9709 will invalidate this view and target 0.9056 key support level instead.

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Special Reports

RBA Comfortable With Current Rates, Weighs Growth Higher Than Inflation

RBA's Policymakers appear to be comfortable with an above-neutral policy rate for now. Therefore, it's highly likely that the central bank will pause again at the March meeting, leaving the cash rate at 4.75%. The accompanying statement is expected to contain little surprises as much was talked during a speech (by Governor Glenn Stevens) in Melbourne last week. Compared with the previous meeting, the new information would be on the heightened inflation outlook as induced by recent rally in oil prices. The Governor may also want to talk about the impacts of a slowdown in Chinese growth.

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BoC to Leave Policy Rate Unchanged

The Bank of Canada will likely leave the overnight rate unchanged at 1%. Policymakers will note that domestic economic growth has softened recently though the global outlook has shown more sustainability. The tone in the policy statement will remain dovish, indicating presence of some event risks: strength in Canadian dollar since the last meeting, renewed sovereign concerns in the European periphery and civil unrests in the Middle East and North Africa.

Read more...

Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Jan 11M -25M -250M -264M
23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Feb 52.9 -- 51.4
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jan P 2.40% 3.60% 3.30%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Jan P 4.70% 5.90% 4.90%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Jan 0.10% -1.50% -2.10%
02:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Feb 34.5 -- 29.5
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Jan 2.70% 5.10% 7.50%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jan F 2.30% 2.40% 2.40%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Jan F 1.20% 1.20% 1.10%
13:30 CAD Current Account (CAD) Q4 -11.05B -9.4B -17.5B -17.0B
13:30 CAD GDP M/M Dec 0.50% 0.30% 0.40%
13:30 USD Personal Spending Jan 0.20% 0.40% 0.70%
13:30 USD Personal Income Jan 1.00% 0.40% 0.40%
13:30 USD PCE Core M/M Jan 0.10% 0.20% 0.00%
13:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Jan 0.80% 0.80% 0.70% 0.80%
13:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Jan 1.20% 1.40% 1.20%
14:45 USD Chicago PMI Feb
68 68.8
15:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Jan
-2.50% 2.00%
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9375

Although the greenback retreated from Friday's high of 0.9320, a break of last week's low at 0.9229 is needed to signal recent downtrend has resumed and extend weakness to 0.9182 (100% projection of 0.9739-0.9415 measuring from 0.9506), however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below there and reckon 0.9150 would hold from here.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3775

Current breach of resistance at 1.3839 (last week's high) confirms the upmove from 1.3428 has resumed and a retest of previous chart resistance at 1.3862 would be seen, however, break above there is needed to retain bullishness and bring further headway to next target at 1.3900 which is likely to hold from here due to loss of upward momentum.

Read more...

Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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